355
FXUS63 KFGF 022050
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
350 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of rain are expected through the remainder of
  the week and into next week. Isolated thunderstorms are
  possible, especially the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Active H5 pattern persists through much of the forecast period, with
multiple chances to see rain and isolated thunderstorms. Shortwave
troughing exits the region this evening and overnight, with a break
in shower activity overnight for most areas. Another, slow moving,
upper low traverses the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday,
bringing a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions
of the region Friday afternoon through around midday Saturday. The
best chance for thunderstorm activity will be along and just south
of the International Border. This will gradually work to the east,
with a period of dry weather starting Saturday afternoon and evening.

H5 shortwave ridging builds into the area Sunday ahead of our next
system. Look for warmer and relatively dry weather through much of
the day, with increasing rain chances late Sunday evening. A
relatively deep upper low is being picked up by multiple ensembles
heading into Monday. Thunderstorm chances will be slightly higher
with this system, along with a better chance for increased
instability as moisture return is well-supported. Troughing will
favor negative tilting ahead of the upper low, and a strong storm or
two cannot be ruled out on both Monday and Tuesday afternoons
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MVFR conditions prevail across much of the area this afternoon,
with periods of IFR ceilings possible during light to moderate
rain. Rain continues to lift to the north at midday, with this
trend expected to continue well into the afternoon and early evening
before eventually tapering off late this evening. Low ceilings
are most likely to occur along with rain activity, with current
and upstream obs showing consistent 800 to 1200 foot ceilings.
Outside of heavier rain, Ceilings are generally in the range of
2000 to 4000 feet. Winds are expected to remain out of the
southeast this afternoon, then shift to the southwest and
eventually west during the overnight hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch