Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 202343
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
643 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Quiet evening across the northern plains with SFC high pressure
and clear skies. Expecting temps to fall into the mid 40s for much
of the area. Across the east a few upper 30s are possible as MET
guidance suggests which also handled the cooler spots well this
morning. Frost not expected to be an issue or impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Temperatures and if any showers will reach our far south tomorrow
morning will be the main issue for the period.

Split flow aloft continues with a weak upper low to our south over
SD/Neb and northern branch ridging over our CWA. Surface high
pressure has kept us clear with light winds today, and highs are
in the upper 60s and low 70s as expected. The center of the
surface high will move off to the east tonight. Some nearly calm
winds may be possible in the eastern counties closer to the center
of the high. MET guidance has temps in the eastern tier getting
into the upper 30s, and recent mornings have been running a bit
colder than guidance. However, do think there will be a bit more
cloud cover as the weak shortwave wobbles into eastern SD, and
will keep lows above frost advisory criteria. Further west, temps
will be well into the 40s as winds start to shift southeastward
and mixing increases.

Some of the global models bring some showers into our far southern
CWA tomorrow morning as the upper low moves into southern MN.
However, the CAMs have most everything staying south, and given
that current radar trends have showers fizzling as they move north
of Sioux City, will lean towards the drier solution. Have some
extremely low POPs in Grant county to blend with neighboring
offices, but think that little more than sprinkles will reach the
ground. Southeast winds will pick up just a bit tomorrow. Most
spots will be in the 70s although the southeastern counties could
stay in the upper 60s thanks more cloud cover and influence from
the weak upper low.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

A continuation of dry weather stretches into Monday night as a
dominant upper ridge over wrn Canada limits moisture with sfc high
pressure over the northern tier.  This pattern begins to break down
by mid week as an upper low over cntrl CA moves into the AZ/NV/UT
tri-border area and weak SW flow sets up into the Dakotas.  This
creates a more unsettled period in the Wed-Sat timeframe, however
main challenge will be timing short wave troughs into the
CWA...where models struggle with consistency, as expected.  There
will be periods with some chances of shra/tsra across mainly the
southern and western zones through Thu...with a bit more widespread
coverage Thu night and Friday. Eastern zones begin to settle down
Sat evening as system moves into Grt Lks.  Sunday once again looks
dry. Afternoon highs next week will see the mercury climb into the
80s with Thursday looking the warmest...especially across the
southern valley where temps should be just below the 90 mark.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Light winds and SKC for much of the overnight. Light southerly
winds develop tomorrow, 5 to 10kts. There will be increasing high
and mid clouds across the south tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JK



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