Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240450
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant weather impacts are expected Sunday through
  Tuesday, from heavy snow and gusty winds. Winter storm warning
  for much of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

- Still some uncertainty with the northern extent of the heavy
  snow. Thus, included up to Highway 2 in the Red River Valley
  in the warning more for wind/blowing snow impacts than snow
  amounts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Radar returns across portions of southeastern ND are manifesting
as light snow making it to the surface. Dry air continues to
inhibit snowfall further to the north. Light accumulations have
been noted on webcam observations in Valley City and the
adjacent areas. Guidance continues to struggle with the
evolution of this system as time progresses, with most CAMs not
showing much in the way of development that matches the current
radar and observational trends. Updated forecast timing to
reflect the latest trends, primarily PoPs and WX grids.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Upper system that will bring our active weather is still coming
onto the West Coast as the Plains should see zonal flow
transition to more southwesterly tonight. Surface low pressure
will deepen to our southwest and eventually the moist conveyer
belt should start bringing the potential for large QPF values
into the Northern Plains. However, this will be fighting against
low level winds from the northeast that are very dry, with dew
points currently around the zero mark in many locations in our
CWA.  Many model soundings don`t really saturate until mid to
late morning tomorrow, and a few models like the HRRR don`t
really have much reaching the ground until afternoon. There is
still also some uncertainty where the surface low will pivot
off to the northeast, with exact track of the low making a big
difference in snow totals. With dry air to overcome and track
difference there has been a recent trend in some of the ensemble
members for lower snow totals across the north. Although the
NBM has been slow to catch up to this trend and a few models
such as the NAM are still very bullish on snow trends. Highest
probabilities for over a foot look to be over southeastern ND
and west central MN, with amounts taper off rapidly to the north
and some spots in the Devils Lake Basin may not get much at all.

As the surface low wraps up and moves into Iowa by Monday, winds
that are already pretty stout due to the tight pressure gradient
will become more favorable for high speeds due to down valley
direction as well as cold air advection. Gusts up to 45 mph are
not out of the question, particularly in portions of the
Sheyenne and southern Red River Valleys. Probabilities of
visibilities down to a half mile or less are around 50 to 60
percent, even up to portions of the Highway 2 corridor on
Monday. While snow amounts in Grand Forks area are not as
certain as Fargo and the I-94 corridor, there will be wind and
periodic visibility impacts, so went ahead and put them in the
winter storm warning. Blizzard conditions are possible, but will
watch and see when and where those headlines are needed.

By Tuesday, the northern branch upper trough digging into the
Dakotas will start to push to the low off to the east and think
snow should start to taper off, although winds will remain
rather breezy. Have headlines ending Tuesday morning from west
to east but if advisory level blowing snow and snow showers
linger Tuesday into Wednesday will cross that bridge when we
come to it.

Thursday into Saturday...Northwest flow should keep things
pretty quiet for the end of next week. However, signs of a
shortwave of some sort by Saturday, although predictability is
low and there was little time to investigate this shift.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

MVFR conditions are working northward into the area tonight,
with light snow being reported intermittently at KFAR. Look for
an expansion in lower ceilings through the remainder of the
overnight period, with light snow working northward through
Sunday morning. Snowfall rates will increase in intensity
through Sunday morning, with moderate to heavy snow possible,
especially at KFAR. The northern extent of the heavy snow is
uncertain, but all TAF sites except KDVL have a relatively high
chance to see visibility reductions in response to heavy snow
and blowing snow. Winds will pick up out of the northeast by
mid-morning, then start to slowly shift to the north through the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
     for NDZ024-026>030.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     NDZ038-039-049-052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
     for NDZ008-016-054.
MN...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
     for MNZ001-002-013>016-022-023-027-028-030-031-040.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ003-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
     for MNZ004-005-007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch


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