Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 132013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
313 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Winds and how much precipitation actually makes it into our
southern counties will be the main forecast concerns.

The main upper low continues to slowly rotate into the Central
Plains, with the surface low centered over southeastern Nebraska.
Radar returns have been entering the far southern CWA, but dry air
coming in from the northeast has been keeping little if anything
from reaching the ground. Will continue to keep some fairly high
POPs up against the South Dakota border in case we do manage to
get some saturation, but lowered QPF as little accumulation is
expected. The upper low will very slowly lift northeastward into
Neb/IA/KS/MO, with the surface low slowly moving to the south and
east. There will continue to be a threat for some light
precipitation along our southern border through tonight and
tomorrow, but the main excitement will remain to our south.

With a fairly tight pressure gradient over the southern counties,
winds have been breezy and have been shaking the web cams that
were checked for precipitation. However, sustained winds have
stayed around 20 to 25 mph with only a few spots gusting above 30
mph, not reaching wind advisory criteria. The 925mb winds stay
around 30 kts and mixing will only decrease as the afternoon goes
on. Even the MOS based guidance which usually does better with
winds is lower than criteria. Will cancel the wind advisory.

Even though winds will not be advisory level they will stay up
overnight and will bring a decent amount of mixing. Temps should
stay mainly in the 20s overnight even with dry air, although a few
spots in the north could dip down into the teens. Tomorrow will
see similar highs to today in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Quiet weather across much of eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota Saturday night. Some snow along with gusty winds still
possible in west central Minnesota and far southeastern North
Dakota. Additional accumulations are expected to be very light and
under an inch.

Going into Sunday the snow should move to the east
with the heaviest snow out of Minnesota. There is some disagreement
in the models with the ECMWF keeping everything (upper level trough
and surface low) farther north which provides for the chance of some
additional light snow accumulation during the day on Sunday. Given
that this is the only model to do this confidence in this occuring
is low and snow will likely be done before Sunday in eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

After the storm responsible for the blizzard conditions in South
Dakota and southern/central Minnesota passes a period of quiet
weather sets in through Tuesday morning. An upper level trough moves
in midweek bringing our next chance at rain and/or snow. There are
still some significant model differences with this system as the GFS
is more progressive and moves the system in earlier than the ECMWF
does. The GFS solution also keeps the upper low farther north
leading to higher QPF over North Dakota and northern Minnesota while
the ECMWF and CMC stay farther south. What precipitation that does
fall will be sensitive to temperature so daytime will likely have
rain transitioning to snow during the overnight hours. A ridge will
settle in behind this system leading to quiet weather for
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Temperatures during this period continue to be below normal but
warmer than last week with widespread highs in the forties. Near the
end of the next week highs look to be in the upper forties with lows
in near freezing. Normal highs this time of year are in the mid to
high fifties with lows in the low to mid thirties.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Winds will be the main concern as the forecast area only gets some
cirrus and mid cloud moving in from the system to the south.
Conditions are VFR and will remain so throughout the period.
Northeast winds at 15 to 20 kts will gust above 25 at times this
afternoon. Winds will diminish slightly this evening, but will
still be mostly in the 12kt or higher range. Some slight shifting
of direction but mostly remaining from the northeast.




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