300
FXUS63 KFGF 301825
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
125 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and
  evening. There is a very low (10% chance) for severe storms in
  the far southern portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Surface analysis indicates a weak surface low over the Dakotas, but
weakening thanks to a much faster deepening low over the Upper
Mississippi Valley. This will allow for the bulk of an unstable warm
sector to be isolated away from our area. However, lower level theta-
e advection may get far enough north to scrape our far southern
portions of the CWA. At this time, this appears to be a very low
likelihood as clearing is significantly limited thanks to the broad
swath of cloud cover across the Dakotas and given the 250mb jet max
is isolated well to the south of the area keeping the surface low in
South Dakota. Still, some elevated instability may provide a brief
risk for hail and low risk (20% chance) for thunderstorms. For this
reason, do not expect severe weather to develop later this afternoon.

Tomorrow will be drier as this system moves out. Relative humidity
values will fall into the 30s tomorrow, but recent rains should
limit the risk of fire spread. Additionally, wind speeds will remain
fairly benign with sustained winds up to 15 knots. Additional rain
chances will develop Wednesday night into Thursday, but the
probability of widespread impacts is low. The remainder of the
period will feature near normal temperatures with periodic chances
for rain once again. Freezing temperatures may arise late this
weekend but this will hinge on sub-synoptic scale things working
out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The main aviation challenge for the TAF period will be a brief
time of VFR conditions this afternoon before falling back to
MVFR/IFR. Expect at least MVFR ceilings through the entire TAF
period, with the potential to fall to IFR overnight tonight.
Rain will move from southwest to northeast through the day
today, but lightning is not expected for any TAF site. The only
TAF site where lightning may arise would be FAR, but the
probability is low (20% chance).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux