Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
304 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Slow Spring Snowmelt Continues...

Ideal spring snowmelt conditions continue with temperatures the
past week or so warming above freezing for a time during the
daytime hours and dropping back below the freezing mark at night.
This temperature regime is expected to generally continue with
highs reaching above freezing through the next week with lows
dropping back down into the teens or 20s.

A weather system moving through the area will provide some light
accumulating snow for most locations late Monday and into early
Tuesday. The far northern Red River Valley and into northern
Minnesota will see the lowest snowfall accumulations (up to an
inch or so) while southeastern North Dakota, the southern Red
River Valley, and into west central Minnesota will see a bit more,
into the 2-4 inch range. This snowfall and associated liquid
precipitation amounts do not appear likely to significantly
alter the expected spring snowmelt and associated runoff.

An additional system late in the week and into the weekend looks
to bring additional precipitation to the area. Details regarding
this system are still unknown at this time so stay tuned to later
forecasts. However, dry conditions carrying over from last summer
and fall, coupled with near normal precipitation this winter,
continue to point to a below normal to normal flood risk across
the Red River and Devils Lake basins this spring.

The current snowpack remains greatest across the central and
northern Red River Valley (mainly north of a line from Valley City
to just north of Fargo to roughly the Upper and Lower Red Lakes).
Much of this area has snow depths of six to 16 inches with
isolated pockets of slightly more or less. The liquid equivalent
within most of this snowpack is slightly below normal ranging from
one to three inches. Across northwest Minnesota, slightly higher
water content of three to five inches can be found in the Upper
Red Lake, Middle, Tamarac, and Two Rivers basins.

The longer term spring outlook indicates below normal temperatures
continuing through mid-April, with near to above normal
precipitation. At this point, significant snowmelt runoff does not
appear likely to begin until late March or early April.

$$

Lee



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