Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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NDC005-027-071-281200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1037 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          Devils and Stump Lakes
                    Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

  The National Weather Service provides long-range probabilistic
   hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
    and September. They will not be provided between October and
     December. Depending on the season, the high or low water
      probabilities may be omitted due to their applicability to
       the hydrologic situation.

.OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

Note: This outlook incorporates a daily average of 350 cfs worth of
pumping operations on Devils Lake from June 1st through November
10th.

The first half of the fall 2023 season (roughly September and
October) brought above normal precipitation to much of the basin.
However, since the beginning of November 2023, precipitation (and
associated snowfall) has been well below normal. Therefore, drought
conditions persist across the majority of the area: ranging from
severe drought across northern portions of the basin to abnormally
dry across the south.

Climate outlooks indicate above normal temperatures to continue into
spring. This will lead to early melting of any lingering snowpack and
introduce the possibility of rain rather than snow heading into
spring.

Lastly, current lake levels are around 1449.1 ft. These levels are
just slightly lower than what they were at this time last year.

The next outlook for the Devils Lake basin will be issued on
Thursday, February 29, 2024.


.Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes Rising Above Given Lake Levels...

  The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
   of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
    years that were run through the model using the precipitation
     and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the
      outlook.

  Interpretation Aid: There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will rise above 49.9 feet during the valid period and
    only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 51.0 feet.

  Note: The current gage zero datum of the Devils Lake at Creel Bay
gage is 1401.33 feet NAVD88 or 1400.00 feet NGVD29. The gage zero
datum of the Stump Lake at East Stump Lake gage is 1401.21 feet
NAVD88 or 1400.00 feet NGVD29.

           Probabilities for Exceeding Listed Lake Levels

             FROM FEBRUARY 12, 2024 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Devils Lake.....
  CREEL BAY           49.6   49.6   49.7   49.9   50.2   50.6   51.0
Stump Lake.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE     49.6   49.6   49.7   49.9   50.2   50.6   51.0


.Current and Previous Record High Lake Levels...

 *  The current height of Devils Lake is 1449.12 feet NGVD29.
 *  The current height of  Stump Lake is 1449.19 feet NGVD29.

 *  The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height
    for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage:
                ...1454.30 feet on   June 27 of 2011
 *  Previous records:
                ...1452.05 feet on   June 27 of 2010
                ...1450.93 feet on   June 27 of 2009
                ...1449.20 feet on    May  9 of 2006
                ...1449.18 feet on   June 17 of 2004
                ...1449.17 feet on August  2 of 2005
    Note: All previous records are recorded in NGVD29.


.OUTLOOK SCHEDULE...

 - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.

 - Special Spring Flood and Water Management Outlooks will be issued
    in late February and early March.

 - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances
    will be provided.

 - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.

 - No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be
    given from October through December, since lake freeze-up
     levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued.

.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake
  levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple
  scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2018 and
  current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil
  moisture.

By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the
  amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
  be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of NOAA`s
  National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
  Services (AHPS).

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height
  for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook
  graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these outlooks
  are available on the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page at:

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=FGF

Wind and wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for
a 7-day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at:

           www.weather.gov/fgf/lake_info

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at @NWSGrandForks.

$$
      weather.gov/fgf
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