Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 181138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
638 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A milder day across the area as a surface ridge axis shifts off to
the east, and in spite of persistent cloud cover temperatures will
climb well into the 40s by afternoon.

By tonight an upper level trough pushes eastward out of the Rockies,
and may see light rain and snow develop through south central SD
overnight. Early in the night temperatures both at the surface and
aloft would support rain, though thermal profiles cool after 06Z and
any precipitation would be in the form of snow at that point. In any
event, QPF amounts are light and accumulation would be minimal. Lows
tonight will be just either side of 30 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A couple of upper level impulses drift out of the northern Rockies
on Monday into early on Tuesday, bringing increasing precipitation
chances to our area. Thermal profiles will support snow, though with
highs on Monday and Tuesday generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s
will see snow mix with rain in the afternoons. Snowfall amounts
through the entire period will range around 1 to 2 inches, though it
is unlikely that this amount will be on the ground at any one time
with melting during the day.

An upper level trough rebuilds across the region for Wednesday and
Thursday with warming temperatures and dry conditions. Highs both
days will be in the 40s to lower 50s. Models begin to diverge by the
end of the week into the weekend in the handling of upper level
energy ejecting out of a western CONUS trough, so confidence is low
on timing of rain/snow chances for Friday through Sunday.
Temperatures look to remain at or just above normal for this time of


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

MVFR-IFR conditions will remain prevalent across the region
through this TAF period. Ceilings in the lower end MVFR-IFR range
this morning expected to improve to upper end MVFR range during
the afternoon, but will likely drop back down to the lower values
again this evening.




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