Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 172339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
639 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Extensive band of stratus across the plains.  With light flow
transitioning to south to southeast flow, expect it to be difficult
to shake the cloud deck.  Have raised sky cover, and forecast lows

Clouds will continue to remain stubborn through the day on Sunday,
but low level warm air advection will allow temperatures to warm
more than today. Have nudged forecast highs up well into the 40s in
most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Next weather maker moves into the central and southern Plains Sunday
night into Monday.  With the wave focused along the Kansas/Oklahoma
border, much of the focus will be further to the south. With a fair
amount of dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere, will be a
struggle to develop precipitation across the area on Sunday night.
Models are in fairly good agreement on an intensifying upper level
wave moving through on Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Moisture
appears to be somewhat limited with this system, but with good model
agreement have raised pops.  Could be a mix of precipitation type,
but dry layer near the surface is expected to wet bulb below
freezing allowing the temperatures in the near surface layer to
dictate rain or snow.  Generally have 0.5-2" of snow across the
forecast area, with greatest amounts in the east where the wave is

A warming trend to above normal levels is expected Tuesday-Thursday.
A more active pattern is next weekend as a series of waves move
through associated with an upper level trough slowly moving from
west to east.  Timing of the individual waves is still very model
dependent, so level pops broad brushed through the Friday night-
Sunday time frame for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

MVFR/IFR stratus is the main story of the aviation forecast.
Widespread VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to eventually lower
tonight all the way do to high end IFR ceilings. Additionally,
with only light winds expected tonight, recent precipitation, and
the already small dew point depressions this evening, a mention of
fog is prudent. Do not expect anything worse than MVFR fog
restrictions and, if they were to occur, any IFR visibility
problems will likely coincide with the presence of IFR ceilings




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