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000
FXUS64 KFWD 221913
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
213 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/
/Through Tuesday Night/

Nice and quiet weather conditions to start off the new week.
After a cool morning with lows in the 30s and 40s, temperatures
will continue to warm up to the 70s this afternoon. Surface high
pressure has moved to our east, bringing southerly winds back to
the region. Mostly clear skies and winds around 5-10 mph can be
expected today with breezy conditions staying over the TX
Panhandle. Low level moisture will begin to increase late tonight
into Tuesday as south winds become more established. This will
keep the overnight lows in the 50s region wide. A band of low
level clouds will begin to spread northward Tuesday morning
impacting portions of North and Central Texas. These should
lift/scatter out by late morning or early afternoon with plenty of
sunshine the rest of the day. Those locations that stay cloudy
longer will see high temperatures in the mid 70s, with the rest of
the region reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.

A weak cold front is still expected to push southward across the
TX/OK Panhandles on Tuesday and become nearly stationary along
the Red River Tuesday night. Isolated convection may develop near
a dryline over West Texas late afternoon, but most of the
activity should diminish before reaching our western counties. We
kept the slight chance of showers/storms across the far western
zones on Tuesday evening to account the potential for a storm or
two sneaking into our area.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made to the long term forecast with current
trends remaining more than reasonable through the week and into
next weekend. Low-end potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will exist each day, with better chances starting on
Thursday and lasting through the weekend. While the overall
severe weather potential is low, there will still be the potential
for any of these storms to produce large hail and damaging winds.
Along with this, a gradual warming trend will result in afternoon
highs ranging in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the
60s and 70s. For more details, please see the previous discussion.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A strengthening mid level ridge over Texas and the Southern
Plains will maintain the warming trend across North and Central
Texas through the mid to late week period. Afternoon temperatures
will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday through
Friday, which will be near to slightly above normal for late
April. At the surface, a front will stall near or just north of
the Red River, providing low-end chances for thunderstorms across
the far north and northwest zones Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.
The ridge will work against convective attempts, however, keeping
coverage of storms isolated and POPs in the slight chance range.

The ridge will begin to weaken on Thursday as a shortwave trough
approaches from the west. The shortwave will cross the southern
Rockies during the day Thursday, eventually reaching West-Central
Texas Thursday evening. Thunderstorms will develop west of the
region in advance of the shortwave, with convection being focused
along a dryline stretching across the Big Country and Concho
Valley. Showers and storms will spread east across North & Central
Texas Thursday night through Friday morning as the shortwave
lifts northeast through the Southern and Central Plains. A few
severe storms will be possible, but with storms occurring mainly
overnight through Friday morning, a lack of instability should
help reduce the overall severe threat.

A lull in convective weather will be possible Friday afternoon
through Friday night, but a second shortwave will kick off another
round of thunderstorms on Saturday. Storms will initially be
isolated and focused along the dryline Saturday afternoon, keeping
the severe weather threat confined to the Big Country counties.
Large scale ascent will arrive as the shortwave crosses the Texas
Panhandle Saturday night, generating more widespread showers and
storms. The Saturday night convection will become focused along a
Pacific front, which will overtake the dryline as it pushes east
through the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday. Some
strong to severe storms will again be possible, but yet again the
time of day should preclude a more widespread severe weather
threat. Precipitation will exit to the east Sunday night into
Monday, but a stalling front may lead to additional rain chances
around the start of next week and the beginning of May.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Potential for low clouds Tuesday morning, breezy/gusty
south winds Tuesday afternoon.

Tranquil weather conditions continue the rest of the day with VFR
cigs and southerly winds around 5-10 kts. Moisture will begin to
increase late tonight into Tuesday morning as a LLJ develops. A
surge of MVFR ceilings will spread northward Tuesday morning and
may impact most of the sites (between 14-18Z) before they begin
to scatter out. Otherwise, surface winds will increase to 10-18
kts in the morning and persist most of the day.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  78  64  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
Waco                55  76  63  82  68 /   0   0   0   5   5
Paris               50  75  61  77  63 /   0   0  10  30  20
Denton              53  78  61  79  67 /   0   0  10  10  20
McKinney            54  76  63  79  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dallas              56  78  64  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
Terrell             53  75  62  80  65 /   0   0   5  10  10
Corsicana           54  76  63  82  67 /   0   0   0   5   5
Temple              53  76  63  82  66 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       52  82  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$