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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250852
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
252 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather is possible Thursday for most of
  the area with the main threats being tornadoes and very large
  hail. The threat is conditional as a cap could prevent storms
  from forming.

- A Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Warning is in effect
  Thursday south of I-70 and west of Highway 25 for low humidity
  and strong winds.

- Blowing dust is also possible Thursday afternoon for near and
  south of the I-70 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Tonight, the 850 mb LLJ will strengthen and shove more moisture into
the CWA. At the surface, easterly winds will cause upslope flow,
leading to stratus and patchy to locally dense fog. This fog may
begin around 10Z and potentially last until 18Z. The stratus will
linger around longer than the fog and potentially cap the severe
environment tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Also tonight, a shortwave looks to fire off a few showers and storms
around 7Z. Small hail and some gusty winds are possible (5% chance),
but confidence for severe weather is less than 2%. These showers
and storms are expected to form near the eastern Colorado border and
move east. The precipitation will exit the CWA in the late morning.
If these showers and storms linger and are fairly strong, this
precipitation could deplete the environment of ingredients for the
later storms.

After 18Z, southerly winds will pick up with gusts up to 35 kts in
the southerly portions of the CWA. Depending on where the dryline
sets up, locales to the west will be much more dry. RH values to the
west of the dryline will drop into the lower teens. This will create
critical fire weather conditions for locations south of I-70 and
west of Highway 25. Most locations will only briefly see the
critical conditions, but there is high (80%) confidence that Greeley
county will see prolonged critical conditions. If the dryline stalls
out farther to the east and north, surrounding counties will have a
good shot at hitting Red Flag Warning criteria, hence why the Fire
Weather Watch has been left in place.

Blowing dust will also be possible (~20-50% chance) in locations
along and south of Highway 36. Along the Kansas Colorado border will
see the best conditions for blowing dust. Visibility reductions down
to 2-3 miles are possible in plumes of blowing dust. Brown-out
conditions cannot be ruled out.

The dryline will be the trigger for the severe weather in the
eventing. SPC has added an Enhanced risk to the southeastern CWA for
Thursday afternoon-night. This is based on a hatched/significant
hazard for 30% chance of hail and 10% chance of tornado. For this
event, the environment will be highly primed for tornado and hail
hazards, but there will likely (60%) be a hefty inversion that will
work to cap the updraft potential. If the cap does break, isolated
discrete to clusters of severe storms will form and all hazards will
be possible, with a focus on tornadoes and hail. The entire Tri-
State area will have potential to see severe weather, but chances
increase farther to the southeast.

Storms are expected to start firing around 18-21Z with the highlight
of the severe storms being 21Z-06Z. The prime location for the
severe storms will be in the southeastern CWA and the storms will
move to the northeast. After 06Z, the severe weather threat will
lower over the following 6 hours. During this time, we will begin to
get the wrap-around precipitation from the northwest. These are
expected to just be showers with a few weak thunderstorms embedded
within. Less than 0.5 inches of QPF is expected with this system
with most of that falling north of highway 36.


As the low pressure system leaves the area on Friday, strong
northwesterly winds are expected to follow. Gusts up to 40 kts are
already expected due to the pressure rises.

Temperatures overnight tonight and tomorrow night will cool to
around 50. High temperatures tomorrow will be highly dependent on
the dryline location and extent of the stratus. Under the stratus,
highs will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. In the southwest,
behind the dryline, low to mid 80s are forecast. Friday will be a
bit more uniform with the northwestern CWA only warming into the mid
60s and the southern CWA reaching into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 144 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

From the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, several rounds of
precipitation look to impact the region in the extended period.

For the upcoming weekend, a cutoff slow-moving 500mb low works off
the central Rockies on Saturday. With an amplified ridge over the
eastern portion of the country, this system is expected to make a
N/NE trek from western Kansas then lift into southwest Nebraska for
late Saturday night into Sunday.

At the surface, low pressure moves into southwest Kansas ahead of
the upper low, with a frontal boundary extending northeastward
towards eastern KS/NE. This low does kick a bit faster eastward than
the upper support. This will allow for an easterly upslope flow to
shift northerly as the low passes.

The result of this surface low/front moving through the area,
combined with upper level support, will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms to occur. Based on the surface low track from both the
GFS/ECMWF, highest pops/QPF chances favor locales along/north of I-
70 as 80-90% chance for precip will occur, tapering to a 40-60%
chance south of the Interstate.

QPF numbers are widely ranging over this event, from 0.20-0.30" east
and south, to 0.70-1.30" in northern/western locales. These higher
numbers are aided by the upslope easterly early on. The bulk of the
QPF will occur Sat/Sat night. With PW values approaching 0.80-1.00"
especially for N/NE zones, hydro concerns could crop up. This will
be on top of what areas have already received rain from Thu-Thu
night.

Looking for the surface gradient Saturday night into Sunday to
increase/tighten with gust potential into the 30-40 mph range before
tapering late Sunday.

Going into next week, zonal flow aloft expected through midweek with
some amplification late Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a
couple weak shortwaves riding through the zonal flow that will help
to trigger a few rw/trw especially in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Surface
low/front across KS during this time will focus moisture/instability
mainly east of the CWA, but eastern zones could see 15-20% chance
for convection. ECMWF/GFS do differ on this as strong ridging aloft
does occur late for the ECMWF, so will stay close to the latest NBM
for precip potential. At most, above normal temperatures are
expected as 850 mb temps will range in +14c to +19c range but will
be highly dependent on cloud cover especially towards the midweek
timeframe.

For temps, going into the upcoming weekend, with a frontal boundary
over southern portions of the area Saturday a wide range in daytime
highs is expected with upper 50s to mid 60s west and upper 60s to
the upper 70s east. Warmest areas will be in the extreme E/SE
portions of the CWA. On Sunday, cooler with mid 50s to lower 60s
expected.

Going into next week, another warmup begins with highs on Monday
reaching into the 70s, upper 70s to mid 80s for Tuesday and
Wednesday, peaking Thursday with 80s area-wide.

Overnight lows Saturday night will range from the mid 30s west into
the mid 40s east. Sunday night, mid to upper 30s expected. Next
week, overnight lows will range mainly in the 40s Monday and Tuesday
nights, trending warmer for Wednesday and Thursday nights with a
range from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1033 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Moisture return is ongoing across the Plains. Ceilings are
forecasted to gradually drop over the next few hours as IFR to
LIFR conditions continue to remain likely; some patchy dense fog
remains possible throughout the night but am anticipating
stratus will be the primary reduction in flight category.
Showers and storms remain forecasted at KMCK tonight as well
starting around 07Z with a low chance that will become severe
with large hail and torrential rainfall the primary hazard. LLWS
is also occurring at each terminal as the low level jet aids in
the moisture return.

Stratus looks to remain at each terminal for most if not all of
the day with the exception being KGLD where a dry line will help
erode clouds. The other story will be the severe thunderstorm
potential with the relative higher confidence at this time that
KMCK will be impacted. All hazards of severe weather will be
possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Portions of the Tri State region could see some potentially
impactful precipitation from showers and thunderstorms over an 84-
hour period starting today and going late into the upcoming weekend.
These chances will come in two rounds, one Thursday/Thursday night
and the other this weekend. Precipitation amounts will be highly
dependent on track and movement and overall coverage.

Rainfall totals that are currently forecasted during this time have
around a half inch or less south and east of a line from Hill City
to Colby, Kansas and southwest to the Tribune area. North and west
of this line, up to 0.80" to a localized 1.60" is possible. The
highest totals are currently focused west of a line from Burlington
Colorado to McCook Nebraska.

Area soils are pretty dry at this time and should be able to handle
around 1 to 2 inch rainfall, but will have to be monitored for
potential for any training of storms in localized areas, especially
for areas that may have seen a lot of rain today/tonight and may see
more storms over the weekend.

There are currently no Flood Watches in effect.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     KSZ027-041.
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Trigg
HYDROLOGY...JN