197
FXUS63 KICT 060809
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous severe storms will impact much of the
  region for today-tonight with a Severe Weather Outbreak
  possibly affecting southern Kansas

- More storms possible on Wednesday across far southeast Kansas

- Dry and quiet weather conditions expected for Thursday-Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Current satellite water vapory imagery shows a large/robust upper
level low pressure system spinning over Idaho with a long extended
jet stream rounding the base of the trough into the southwestern
states. The strength of the jet stream winds aloft has kept
increasing by the models from Friday until now with a current jet
max(110-130kt). This jet max(exit region) will push out into the
Texas panhandle/western Oklahoma with a west to east alignment this
afternoon then spread eastward into the night time hours. Strong
forcing from upper trough will pivot in a negative fashion over
western Kansas by late morning/early afternoon, thus causing a line
of storms to rapidly develop. This line of storms will intensify and
spread southward as it moves east towards central Kansas between 2PM-
4PM. The key things to watch for today will be storm mode on radar
which will tell us how the atmosphere is dictating storm
organization, along with timing of low clouds scouring out which
will predicate magnitude of instability. Wind shear vector
orientation favors liner storm mode for central Kansas with
more perpendicular alignment crossing over the dry-line in far
southern Kansas/Oklahoma(better opportunity for discrete
supercells). Also any storm that can develop east of the line of
storms would be a concern for discrete supercell mode and have
a favorable environment to itself.

The 4PM to 8PM time frame across south central Kansas into Oklahoma
looks like the window when things could be at peak severity(most
favorable area for a Severe Weather Outbreak to occur). This is
when clearing of low clouds begins and stronger winds aloft from
upper jet influence the region, thus causing a boost to
instability and wind shear aloft. Favorable low LCLs and
hodographs shapes suggests strong tornadic potential. Any
discrete supercell in this environment would be capable of
producing very damaging winds up to 80mph, giant hail up to
softball size, and strong potentially longer-track tornadoes.
After 8PM this volatile environment will begin to spread into
southeast Kansas where a continuation of higher end severe
weather is likely.

As main upper level low pressure system sits and churns over the
Dakotas for Tuesday into Wednesday. Models show an embedded short
wave rotating around the base of the upper trough across northern
Kansas/Nebraska late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thunderstorms
could develop over far southeast Kansas Wednesday. The weather
pattern looks to remain rather quiet Thursday-Sunday with surface
high pressure dominating over the region this period. Daytime highs
will hover around seasonal averages with lighter wind speeds Friday-
Sunday making for some pleasant weather days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

- IFR and LIFR CIG/VSBYs through 15Z this morning

- Good chance for strong to severe thunderstorms after 19Z

IFR and LIFR CIGs and VSBYs are likely for the first six to
eight hours of the TAF period. This will primarily affect the
KCNU terminals with some MVFR VSBYs but IFR CIGs at KICT. The
remaining terminals are likely to see IFR CIGs through the first
six to eight hours. After 17Z today, there is a chance for some
clearing in the KRSL, KGBD area before the next weather system
approaches. Thunderstorms are expected but the timing of this
thunderstorm activity is still in question. As such, not
confidence enough to do more than a PROB30 for this TAF cycle.
Thunderstorms that do occur are likely to be strong or severe.
Best chance for the thunderstorm activity will be after 19Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ELM