Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
900 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...

This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.

...The chances for river flooding over central, south central, and
southeast Kansas have a near normal risk of flooding this Spring.
However, there is a slight above normal risk for flooding in far
southeast Kansas...

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

This outlook is valid from March 14th through March 28th, 2024.

The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.

Recent Conditions:

There is no snowpack across the service area. Most of the HSA area
received near normal to around 200 percent of its normal seasonal
snowfall.

This winter season we saw a two week period of deep frozen soils of
around 8 to 12 inches across the area. Soils are not frozen at this
time nor do we expect any future occurrences as we jump into spring.
Therefore this will not play a factor in spring runoff.

The 90-day precipitation was above normal across the service area.
The percent of normal precipitation varied from 110 to 200 percent of
normal. This relates to departures mainly totaling at 0.75 to 2.25
inches above normal with slightly higher values of 2.25 to 3 inches
across the Flint Hills.

Over the last two weeks, most of the service area received between 70
to 150 percent of its normal precipitation.

Mean temperatures during the last 2 weeks have been above normal over
the entire service area. The departure from normal values across
central and south central Kansas were 2 to 4 degrees above and warmer
in southeast Kansas by 6 to 8 degrees above normal.

Soil moisture across the HSA is near normal. CPC continues to show
soil moisture ranked between the 30th to 70th percentile over the
area.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued the 14th of March 2024, shows
a slight improvement in drought conditions from 2 weeks ago. This was
due to some localized heavy rains that occurred in parts of central
and southeast Kansas this past week. However, in south central Kansas
abnormal dryness spread where dry weather from the past couple of
months combined with warm and windy conditions. Areas of Severe
Drought (D2) located around Reno/McPherson and Chautauqua Counties in
south central Kansas and southeast Kansas respectively have decreased
in drought coverage. The Moderate Drought (D1) conditions surrounding
the smaller areas of D2 have decreased in extent over southeast
Kansas.  Only a few counties, Greenwood and northern Elk, remained
free of drought or abnormal dryness. Drought conditions have greatly
improved from this time last year.
(http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map
shows streams across southeast Kansas are experiencing normal to
above normal flows. Basins across central and south central Kansas
are mainly experiencing below normal flows with a few areas of
exception that have near normal flows.
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)

The U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate reservoir storage is near
normal. Reservoirs currently have near 100 percent of their flood-
control storage available for runoff from heavy rainfall events.

Future Conditions:

The U.S. Seasonal Drought outlook valid through the end of May 2024,
indicates improvements in drought conditions during the period.
Expect most drought areas to dissipate with a few drought areas to
improve by at least 1 category.

There are chances of storms late this afternoon in southeast Kansas
depending on the frontal passage. Then expect dry seasonably cool
with temperatures near or slightly above normal through mid-week. The
next chances of precipitation will be next week in the Wednesday
night to Thursday time frame.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period
March-April-May shows equal chances of above, near, or below normal
temperatures across Kansas. CPC shows chances of slightly favoring
above normal precipitation during the period.

The 8-14 day Outlook for the period March 20th through the 26th...
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) CPC indicates equal chances of above,
near, or below normal temperatures across Kansas. There is a slight
lean toward seeing above normal precipitation over most of the HSA
with a small area in south central Kansas along the border counties
having a near normal chance of precipitation.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/14/2024 - 06/10/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend          12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           8.0   13.0   19.0 :   5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Haven               10.0   11.0   12.0 :   8   12    7    8    5    5
Derby               12.0   15.0   16.2 :  13   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mulvane             16.5   19.0   21.0 :  14   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Oxford              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  26   18   10    7   <5   <5
Arkansas City       11.0   17.0   21.0 :  36   31    8    5   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert              24.0   25.0   25.7 :   7   <5    5   <5    5   <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons               18.0   22.0   24.7 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           9.5   10.5   12.5 :  42   20   26    7   <5   <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills          22.0   25.0   27.0 :  15   19    9   12   <5   <5
Halstead            25.0   27.0   29.0 :  13   14    6    9   <5   <5
Sedgwick            22.0   25.0   26.0 :  11   14    6    7   <5   <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th    18.0   22.0   24.0 :  14   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  18   10    5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                17.0   21.0   26.0 :  10    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Belle Plaine        23.0   24.5   26.0 :   8    7    5   <5   <5   <5
:Slate Creek
Wellington          19.0   22.0   23.5 :  50   39   26   14    7   <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda             22.0   25.0   28.0 :  24   16   15   11    6   <5
Augusta             21.0   25.0   30.0 :  16   15   10    9    5   <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado           21.0   22.0   24.0 :  18   14   17   12   15    9
:Walnut River
El Dorado           19.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             23.0   28.0   36.0 :  15   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winfield            18.0   22.0   29.0 :  28   25   19   19    7    9
Arkansas City       18.0   22.0   28.0 :  16   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin              10.0   19.0   28.0 :  33   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fall River
Fredonia            17.0   27.0   36.0 :  32   38    9   11   <5   <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona             19.0   21.0   26.0 :  24   26    7    7   <5   <5
Independence        30.0   47.6   53.0 :  32   37   <5   <5   <5   <5
Coffeyville         18.0   23.0   26.5 :  17   28    5   10   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence            22.0   27.0   32.0 :  30   25    7   <5   <5   <5
Cottonwood Falls     9.0   11.0   18.0 :  37   32   24   21   <5   <5
Plymouth            32.0   34.0   37.0 :  31   29   14   11   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Iola                15.0   21.0   27.0 :  43   37   <5    9   <5   <5
Chanute             23.0   28.5   35.0 :  44   51   21   22   <5    5
Erie                29.0   32.0   36.0 :  41   47   29   34   15   19
Parsons             21.0   23.0   32.0 :  56   56   40   47   <5   <5
Oswego              17.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   55   35   39    8   10
:Salt Creek
Barnard             21.0   23.3   24.9 :   8   24    7   18   <5   <5
:Saline River
Lincoln             30.0   36.0   38.5 :  11   22   <5    9   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg           21.0   29.0   33.9 :  21   38    8    7   <5   <5
Mentor              20.0   24.0   28.0 :  14   36   11   17   <5   <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina              24.0   26.0   27.4 :  21   39   12   36    5    6
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria         27.0   30.0   33.1 :  24   37   17   29    6    9
Russell             18.0   20.0   38.0 :  <5    9   <5    5   <5   <5
Ellsworth           20.0   24.0   27.0 :   5    9   <5    6   <5   <5
:Saline River
Russell             18.0   20.0   23.0 :   5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/14/2024 - 06/10/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend            0.7    0.8    1.3    3.5    5.4    7.3    8.7
Hutchinson            1.1    1.5    1.9    2.8    3.8    5.1    8.2
Haven                 2.3    2.9    3.8    4.7    6.6    9.4   12.1
Derby                 1.9    2.5    3.6    5.3    9.0   12.8   13.9
Mulvane               6.7    7.5    8.4   10.2   14.1   17.5   18.9
Oxford                8.6    9.6   10.7   12.7   17.3   20.2   21.2
Arkansas City         4.5    5.5    7.0    8.7   13.1   16.5   18.4
:Walnut Creek
Albert                3.6    3.7    5.7    9.6   15.6   21.4   25.8
:Cow Creek
Lyons                 3.9    3.9    6.8   10.2   13.6   17.5   18.0
Hutchinson            2.1    3.5    5.9    9.0   10.6   11.2   11.8
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills            0.2    0.7    6.9   12.2   17.7   24.8   26.1
Halstead              6.0    7.4   10.4   14.8   19.6   26.5   27.3
Sedgwick              4.7    6.0    7.4   10.8   16.5   22.8   25.7
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th      7.1    7.5   10.9   13.6   16.0   19.0   19.5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock               3.6    3.6    4.7    5.5    7.3    9.0   10.1
:Ninnescah River
Peck                  3.0    4.0    5.2    7.5   12.1   17.3   19.1
Belle Plaine          9.8   11.0   12.8   14.5   18.2   22.4   24.6
:Slate Creek
Wellington            4.0    5.3    8.8   19.2   22.2   23.2   23.8
:Whitewater River
Towanda               1.9    4.1    8.5   12.7   22.0   26.6   28.6
Augusta               3.9    5.8    7.9    9.8   14.8   25.5   30.3
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado             6.5    7.8    8.1   11.3   15.6   28.2   45.0
:Walnut River
El Dorado             2.1    3.3    3.8    7.7   11.5   13.9   17.4
Augusta               6.3    6.9    8.2   13.8   19.7   24.9   27.2
Winfield              1.9    3.1    6.5   11.1   19.2   27.3   30.6
Arkansas City         3.9    5.1    8.2   11.4   15.7   19.7   20.6
:Chikaskia River
Corbin                2.3    2.3    4.7    7.5   11.2   13.9   15.7
:Fall River
Fredonia              5.7    5.9    9.5   14.1   18.4   26.5   30.0
:Verdigris River
Altoona               6.4    7.3    9.7   15.6   18.9   20.5   21.5
Independence          9.3   10.2   15.6   23.3   32.7   38.3   41.6
Coffeyville           3.2    3.5    5.0    8.5   16.4   19.4   23.6
:Cottonwood River
Florence              3.6    4.4    6.0   14.9   24.1   26.7   27.4
Cottonwood Falls      1.7    2.2    3.4    7.1   10.8   14.0   14.4
Plymouth              5.8    8.5   15.0   27.9   33.3   34.3   34.6
:Neosho River
Iola                  8.4    9.1   10.8   14.0   17.5   19.0   19.5
Chanute              10.2   12.3   17.7   21.7   27.2   32.5   34.9
Erie                 15.2   16.5   22.5   26.9   33.3   37.6   41.7
Parsons              11.0   12.0   18.9   21.8   25.1   27.5   29.2
Oswego                9.1    9.7   13.5   18.0   21.6   24.5   26.2
:Salt Creek
Barnard               4.3    4.3    4.7    7.2   11.0   19.0   24.1
:Saline River
Lincoln              10.6   10.6   11.0   13.8   23.7   30.5   34.8
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.4    6.4    7.4    8.5   16.9   27.5   30.2
Mentor                3.8    4.0    4.8    6.0   16.1   26.0   27.4
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                3.8    3.8    4.3    6.9   23.3   26.3   27.2
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria           8.2   10.5   14.8   21.5   25.5   31.9   33.8
Russell               3.7    3.7    3.9    6.4   10.5   13.5   16.8
Ellsworth             1.3    1.4    3.9    6.6   10.0   16.1   21.3
:Saline River
Russell               4.1    4.1    4.4    7.0    8.9   15.6   17.8

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Based upon the above information, there is a near normal chance of
flooding across most of the HSA this spring with a slightly above
normal chance in parts of southeast Kansas. A substantial part of
this assessment is factoring in the soil moisture conditions and the
seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks. Any flooding that
does occur this Spring will be largely dependent on the intensity and
placement of precipitation and thunderstorms.

This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook this
year.

$$

Salazar






















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