735
FNUS72 KILM 021302
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for McLean Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
902 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Morning fog will quickly burn off and dry high pressure will move
overhead today with light winds expected. Today`s seabreeze front
should move northward across McLean Savannah shortly before 2:00
PM, shifting winds to the south-southeast with an increase in speed
to 6 to 8 mph. Winds should become calm this evening and there is
a high potential for fog again late tonight.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is High.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 7 mph shifting to the south
                    around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (40784 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............51.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  4   6   7   8   5   3   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............76  80  81  82  82  82  82  81
RH..............70  60  57  53  51  52  56  59
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..1   2   3   4   5   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.3   4   5   7   9   9   11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 3.2 4.4 4.6 4.4 3.8 3.4 2.7
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.6   7   7   8   9   10  10  12
Stability.......A   A   A   A   A   B   B   B
LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............11  28  39  46  51  47  43  39
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.9   22  31  37  41  39  35  31
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...000 002 002 002 999 999 999 995

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Areas of fog
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 12 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (3802 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Min ADI.............4.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   2   2   6   10  14  19  23  27  31  34  37
Weather cov.....                                PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....                                FOG FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Temp............78  75  72  70  68  67  66  65  64  64  64  64
RH..............67  74  81  85  90  94  96  97  98  99  99  99
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..6   5   4   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.9   8   7   6   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  12  10  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   8
Stability.......B   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........3   3   4   5   6   6   7   7   9   9   9   9
ADI.............29  5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.23  6   4   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...995 995 998 998 998 001 001 001 000 000 000 999

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Areas of fog early in
                    the morning, then patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 13 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (41889 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............53.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........37     36     28     21     13     13
Weather cov.....AREAS  PATCHY
Weather type....FOG    FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............64     65     73     80     83     82
RH..............100    100    83     62     54     56
20 ft wind......SW 1   SW 1   SW 2   S 4    S 5    S 6
20 ft wind gust.2      3      4      6      8      11
Mix hgt (ft)....500    600    1800   3400   4600   3100
Transport wind..SW 7   SW 7   SW 8   S 7    S 9    S 12
Stability.......F      A      A      A      A      B
LVORI...........9      8      3      2      1      1
ADI.............3      7      19     30     53     44
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4      4      14     23     42     36
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   POOR
Sfc pres (in)...29.99  30.04  30.04  30.07  30.04  30.04

$$
Forecaster...Armstrong
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413018.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org