635
FXUS61 KILN 151533
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1133 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Exiting low pressure and an upper level trough today will give
way to building high pressure overnight and Thursday, bringing a
period of dry weather. This ridge will exit quickly on Thursday
with scattered showers expected to enter overnight, prompted by
shortwave energy aloft. Friday will see a better chance of and
more widespread shower activity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
Second morning update bumped temps in the next few hours towards
latest blend of current forecast and hourly guidance that had a
good take on current readings. Blended pops to lean heavily on
14Z run of CONSshort, which seems to have a fair representation
on future placement on rain, and the best initial set of
conditions of any model by far.

Lowered thunder chances again, and feel that what few convective
elements that are currently beginning south of ILN will be the
only potential for this activity. Even with this, earlier
showers have all evolved into a stratus rainfall in relatively
short order. Don`t think that the low clouds and very moist
boundary will permit for the forecast CAPE values to be realized
without any significant breaks in the cloud cover, which really
looks to be confined to the far southeastern CWA.

Even with this being said, was not comfortable to peel back
shower potential in any significant manner given the disparity
on model consensus today in forecast precip fields amongst other
parameters.

As surface low pressure low makes its way east, coverage and
thunderstorm threat are expected to increase by early afternoon
as instability rises. Heavy downpours will be possible under
slow moving moisture-laden cells forming in a thermodynamically
favorable environment that features tall skinny CAPE. A drying
trend may be observed this afternoon over northwest counties
located farther from the low center.

Temperatures may rise from the low 60s this morning to the
upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon though sunshine will be
scarce given the precip and heavy cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Surface low pressure will accelerate to the southeast tonight,
while a ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the west. The
ridge will be positioned overhead on Thursday. This scenario
will bring an end to showers tonight, with dry weather
continuing through Thursday. After temperatures fall to the 50s
tonight under gradually decreasing cloud cover, highs should
reach the mid and upper 70s Thursday thanks to warm advection
and insolation.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z guidance continues to show spread in handling a trough coming
out of the central US which leads to some uncertainty, especially in
timing of onset and departure of precipitation. But certainly the
trough will lead to unsettled conditions for the end of the week as
it tracks across the region.  Depending on how extensive the clouds
and precipitation are during the daytime periods, temperatures will
be within a few degrees of normal. But overnight readings will
remain mild.

Ridging will build in starting on Sunday. This will lead to even
warmer temperatures for the latter part of the period. There are
varying solutions on when short wave energy may ride over the top
the ridge which could bring a chance of storms. At this point have
leaned more towards Tuesday, but plenty of uncertainty as is often
the case that far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aviation continues to be impacted by low pressure tracking
slowly across Kentucky. With near surface air approaching
saturation, ceilings as low as IFR are forecast this morning.
There will be showers, though timing and location are uncertain
due to scattered nature. For all sites, went with diurnally
influenced coverage of showers and VCTS during afternoon peak
instability. Improvement to VFR should occur this afternoon
with increased mixing. As showers diminish tonight, MVFR is
likely again as ceilings redevelop in lingering low level
moisture.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible with thunderstorms
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Franks
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio