344
FXUS61 KILN 191949
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
349 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected through Monday, with a chance of showers and storms
returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for
showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night with
the approach and passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler and
drier conditions are in store for the end of workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Narrow mid level ridge over the area this afternoon with only
scattered shallow cumulus clouds over the area. This ridge is
offering a lack of forcing and has inhibited convective
development. Moderate instby has developed to our northwest
around the periphery of the mid level ridge closer to a weak
front. The front will stall out across the southern Great Lakes
but an isolated shower or storm could encroach into west central
Ohio this evening prior to dissipating.

With the exception of some valley fog - the overnight is
expected to be quiet.

Mild lows tonight range from 60 to 65 with some upper 50s
in rural sheltered locations.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge to remain centered just to ILN/s south
Monday/Monday night.Expect daylight hours on Monday to remain
dry with few to scattered cumulus clouds. Another warm day is in
store for the region with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

A shortwave tracks thru the Great Lakes with the ridge being
suppressed a little further south Monday night. Most models keep
the area dry but a few of the solutions allow a shower/thunderstorm
to drop into ILN/s northern counties late Monday night. Have
kept the forecast dry at this time but there is some uncertainty.

Mild temperatures drop to lows in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm day will be in place for Tuesday with high temperatures in
the upper 80s.  There will be the potential for afternoon pop up
thunderstorms with the heating of the day.  These will dissipate
during the evening leaving a brief period of dry conditions.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the morning
hours on Wednesday.  How quickly this moves out will have an impact
on how widespread the severe weather will be later in the day.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours.  Some of these thunderstorms will have
the potential to be severe with damaging winds.  Tornadoes cannot be
ruled out.  In addition, due to several rounds of precipitation
expected, flash flooding will also be a concern. Expect this
activity to continue into the night as a cold front works through
the region. This feature will continue to push through on Thursday
and precipitation chances will taper off.

Cooler air will be ushered into the region with highs in the 70s
expected for Thursday and lows in the 50s Thursday night.  There is
still quite a bit of model variation for Friday into the weekend on
how much moisture will be drawn up into the region.  Due to
continued uncertainty during this time have limited precipitation
chances Friday through Sunday to no more than the chance
category.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered fair weather shallow cumulus clouds have developed
under the influence of mid level ridging.

These clouds should linger into early evening, especially near
KDAY, as a weak front boundary and a few showers approach west
central Ohio. The isold showers are expected to remain north of
the TAF sites. Some valley fog will be possible overnight with
MVFR conditions forecast at KLUK.

VFR conditions for Monday with only few to scattered cumulus
clouds and some thin high level clouds.

Light northerly winds will become light and variable overnight
and then south at less than 10 kts Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR