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000
FXUS63 KILX 131744 AAA
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 70s are expected today, warming to the 80s by Sunday.
  Lows in the 50s and 60s are likely through Wednesday.

- A strong storm system will affect the region Tuesday, with
  strong southerly winds likely gusting 35 to 45 mph, and showers
  and thunderstorms which could become severe especially late
  afternoon through late evening.

- Temperatures will turn much cooler late next week into next
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A strong warming trend will start today, with highs reaching the
mid 70s throughout most of central and southeast IL. Winds that
were light and variable this morning will increase to a 10-15 mph
breeze by this afternoon, helping to advect an increasingly warm
air mass to the area. Nearly cloud free skies are noted over the
area this morning, but high clouds seen on satellite over KS/NE
should start to stream into the area this afternoon. Morning
forecast package incorporates these trends well, and only minimal
updates to temperatures and cloud cover have been made through
early evening.

37

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The warming trend continues today, as WAA brings highs into the 70s
across the central and southeastern Illinois area. Clear, sunny
skies with much lighter winds are on deck for today. Tomorrow, highs
warm up into the 80s, which will hang around through Wednesday,
before a cooling trend sets up for the latter half of the week. By
next weekend, highs will be back down into the 50s (below normal).
Normal highs are in the mid 60s for this time of April. Lows will be
in the 50s and 60s through Wednesday before dropping down to upper
30s to low 40s by the weekend. Normal lows are in the 40s right now.
The drop could threaten sensitive vegetation.

The next event of interest comes along on Tuesday as a low pressure
system is set to cross the Midwest, bringing a couple frontal
passages. Monday evening a weak cold front looks to drop south
through the CWA. Then switches to a warm front as it travels back
north Tuesday morning. A cold front is set to sweep through that
following night. These rounds of frontal boundaries may be
associated with showers and thunderstorms. The pressure gradient
with the low will be tight, much like the set up yesterday, and will
subsequently have strong winds. Winds that day could gust up to 35-
45 mph at times. Forecast soundings show the boundary layer
potentially mixing down 30-40 knot winds. The cold front Tuesday
evening/night has the greatest chance of being associated with
strong to severe thunderstorms, with more than enough wind shear to
support development and organization.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours, however 45 kt SW winds
aloft developing this evening will create low level wind shear
conditions from around 04Z-15Z. Otherwise, sfc winds will be SW
10-12 kts this afternoon, and increase to 12-16 kts with gusts
20-25 kts tonight into Sunday morning.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$