Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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496 FXUS63 KLBF 040843 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 343 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An all hazards severe weather event is possible Monday afternoon, generally affecting areas along and east of highway 83. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Drier air and clearing skies have swept into wrn and ncntl Nebraska this morning. A check on afternoon cumulus clouds was generally negative. The models show warmer air moving in aloft off-setting saturation 850-700mb. 300-850mb RH will fall to around 20 percent today which would support full sun conditions with just scattered cumulus. Sfc high pressure across the cntl/nrn Plains today will move east into the Midwest tonight setting up south winds and return moisture across wrn/ncntl Nebraska. The models suggest the potential for morning stratus across wrn Nebraska Sunday which could linger into the afternoon as the moisture deepens. The forecast today through Sunday concerns temperatures and the forecast leans toward the warmer NBM 50th guidance. A blend of the short term model blend and the RAP model is in place for highs in the 60s today, 30s to around 40 tonight and then a modest warm up Sunday into the 60s to near 70. A check on the 500m AGL winds Sunday suggested sustained speeds of 25 to 30 mph across wrn Nebraska. Deep cyclogenesis will be underway across the nrn high Plains. The RAP model suggested gusts of 30 to 40 mph across wrn Nebraska. The wind forecast using the short term model blend and the NBM 50th came in a bit stronger with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Given the caliber of the incoming weather system, potentially record sfc low pressure- sub-980mb across nrn ND and srn Saskatchewan Monday night according to the NAEFS, the stronger wind forecast would appear warranted. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Moisture return will deepen Sunday night with strong south winds of 40-50kts at h850-800mb. The NAM reflectivity product, the NAM soundings and the RAP model suggest saturation reaching to 800mb which would support drizzle or light showers. POPs for this feature have been limited to 50 percent but it is worth noting the h850- 700mb theta e advection will be running strong across far eastern WY and the Nebraska Panhandle. There is the potential for an isolated storm or two to fire off the Laramie range, Cheyenne divide or Pine Ridge late Sunday afternoon which could drift into wrn Nebraska Sunday evening. Otherwise, strong capping at h700mb should limit rain chances to just showers or drizzle. Attention is drawn to the prospect of an all hazards severe weather event Monday afternoon generally affecting areas along and east of highway 83. The upper level forcing in the form of height falls and an approaching PV1.5 anomaly appear to be quite strong and could start storm activity as early as 18z-19z Monday afternoon. The focus will be strong south winds and theta e advection ahead of a Pacific cold front which should be advancing through wrn Nebraska Monday morning. Still unknown is the northward extent of the warm sector opening up across KS into Nebraska. The warm air advection for this event appears to be aimed at cntl Nebraska and the day 3 SPC svr wx outlook favors cntl and ern Nebraska for this and other reasons. Sub 985mb sfc low pressure will stall and slowly fill across the nrn Plains Monday night and Tuesday. The occlusion process will cause the sfc low to reform across the Great Lakes Wednesday. The models appear to be maintaining the high wind risk mostly across MT and the Dakotas Monday and Tuesday. The Pacific front Monday could potentially spread high winds out of WY and into wrn Nebraska. Otherwise, The early week storm will form a large upper low across the nrn U.S. which will slowly weaken throughout the week. Subzero h700mb temperatures will persist across wrn/ncntl Nebraska throughout the week. The cold air aloft and strong daytime heating would support afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The NBM suggested daily rain chances, mainly across nrn Nebraska. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 MVFR and IFR ceilings will clear from the west early this morning. All areas across western and north central Nebraska should be VFR by sunrise. Skies will remain clear through Saturday with light winds. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Taylor