Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 222105
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
405 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers tonight across north central Nebraska may lead to
  a dusting of snowfall.

- Rain, with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday night
  into Sunday morning. Another chance for thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and evening across the southeast.

- A strong storm system impacts the area Sunday into Monday.
  Initially, precipitation falls as rain and a wintry mix,
  before transitioning over to snow Sunday night. Snowfall could
  be heavy at times. Additionally, strong north winds 25 to 40
  mph with gusts to 60 mph Sunday night into Monday will create
  widespread blowing and drifting snow, with widespread travel
  impacts expected Sunday night through late Monday night.

- Another system may bring additional winter weather impacts
  late week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery indicates an
upper level low off the coast of Oregon. An upper level low was also
located over northern Ontario Canada with troughing to the south
across the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, strong surface high
pressure extended over Saskatchewan Canada extending southeastward
across Nebraska into western Kansas. This is bringing colder
temperatures and stratus to western Nebraska. Temperatures at 4pm
CDT, ranged from the low to mid 30s north central to the mid 40s to
near 50 southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Tonight, a disturbance will passing through South Dakota and north
central Nebraska. This will develop an area of light snow showers
mainly from eastern Cherry county eastward across north central
Nebraska. Snowfall amounts up to a half inch are forecast.

Saturday, surface low pressure will deepen across southeast Wyoming
and eastern Colorado, where a stationary front will be located. Ahead
of this front, models are indicating an increase in moisture
advection, with dewpoints rising into the lower 30s across southwest
Nebraska into the southeast panhandle during the afternoon. A chance
for rain showers late Saturday afternoon across the western
Sandhills, as well as potential for isolated thunderstorms. Going
into Saturday night, the forecast environment does not look
supportive of severe weather with MUCAPEs remaining below 100 J/KG,
though 0-6km shear will remain from 40-50kts. Gusty winds and pea
size hail may occur with the stronger storms Saturday night. Likely
POPS near and north of Highway 2. Rainfall amounts should remain
mostly a tenth of an inch or less. Subfreezing temperatures across
northeastern areas will support a brief period of light freezing
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

On Sunday, a large upper trough will extend across the western U.S.
A closed low is forecast to develop over northeast CO by late
afternoon with deep surface low pressure near 978mb over southeast
Colorado. A warm front will extend northeast across southwest
Nebraska. Meanwhile, an arctic cold front will drop southeast during
the afternoon. This will result in a strong contrast in temperatures
by late afternoon from the low 30s in the northwest Sandhills to the
low to mid 50s across the southwest. This will support the chance
for rain and thunderstorms across southwest into central Nebraska
during the afternoon, with rain mixing with or changing to snow
across the northwest Sandhills by late afternoon. MUCAPEs will reach
500-1000 J/KG by late afternoon. A few strong storms are possible
mainly near and south of I80 into early evening, where small hail
and gusty winds. Heavy downpours of rain are shown by various
deterministic models including the GFS, ECMWF ahead of the advancing
cold front late Sunday afternoon and evening. Local rainfall amounts
of a half to over three quarters of an inch are forecast.

As the cold front advances quickly southeast Sunday night, the
closed upper low will track from southeast Colorado into central
Nebraska overnight. Some model differences remain, as the ECMWF is
faster and further north with the low track. The latest forecast
uses the NBM. Rain and evening thunderstorms will continue ahead of
the cold front Sunday night. There will likely be an hour transition
from rain to snow behind the front. This will lead to a period of
freezing rain or sleet where amounts may approach one tenth of an
inch before a full transition to snow.

The larger concern will be the winter weather impacts behind the
front. With deep surface low pressure of to our southeast, northerly
winds will quickly increase Sunday night to 25 to 40 mph with gusts
up to 60 mph possible. These strong winds will persist on Monday,
then diminish Monday evening. This will result in widespread blowing
snow Sunday evening into Monday. Due to the convection nature of
this system, snowfall rates may get heavy at times Sunday night into
Monday morning, which will likely lead to white-out and blizzard
conditions.

As for the heavy snow potential, confidence has increased that heavy
snow will occur over north central Nebraska and extend south into
southwest Nebraska. What remains uncertain is where the location of
the heaviest snowfall band sets up. Much will depend on the speed of
the low pressure system, which seems to change run to run. If the
system trends to the slower solution, similar the the GFS then
potential increases for the snow to start further west and
accumulate for a longer period. On the other hand, if the system
trends faster like the ECMWF, the snow banding may develop further
east. What remains fairly certain is that the combination of the
strong winds, along with the potential for heavy snowfall to result
in widespread hazardous travel conditions. Widespread areas of
blowing snow are expected, and white-out to blizzard conditions are
possible.

From the latest guidance from WPC and NBM, confidence was high
enough to issue a winter storm watch for most of western and north
central Nebraska from Sunday evening through late Monday night. This
includes Keith, Perkins and Lincoln County to the south and all
counties to the north and east. Forecast snowfall amounts in the watch
area range from 4 to 12 inches, with the highest amounts from 6 to
12 inches over a large portion of north central Nebraska.

The system should exit the area late Monday night. Winds will remain
strongest from 20 to 30 mph Tuesday morning over eastern portions of
north central Nebraska. This will leads to some blowing and drifting
snow potential through Tuesday. A transitory upper level ridge will
move into the region on Thursday. As for temperatures, resulting
snowfall will dictate the amount of warmup through Thursday. Highs
in the 20s and 30s Tuesday should warm into the mid 40s to low 60s,
warmest across the far southwest.

The next potential system comes late week. As another upper level
trough and closed low pushes in from the west, additional
precipitation chances return Thursday night into Friday. At this
time, confidence is still low on the timing and potential impacts,
so will be worth monitoring closely over the next several days as
guidance and ensembles get a better handle on it.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A stratus deck has continued across portions of the area
bringing MVFR ceilings to both KLBF and KVTN early this
afternoon. The expectation is that these lowered ceilings will
gradually lift through the late afternoon with VFR conditions
returning this evening.

Scattered snow showers will be possible across northern and
north central Nebraska overnight into early Saturday morning,
impacting KVTN. At this time, confidence remains too low to
mention beyond VCSH and MVFR ceilings. Future inclusions are
possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday
night for NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-057>059-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Viken


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