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000
FXUS64 KLIX 260950
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
450 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

You guessed it, another quiet night. Once again we temps are just
a little warmer than they were 24 hrs ago and morning lows will
likely be about 5 degrees warmer than they were yesterday morning.
With winds picking up fog should not be an issue this morning but
we could see some patches of low clouds develop.

The forecast thinking for today and through the weekend has not
changed. We will be warm, we will see breezy conditions (maybe
strong enough to warrant a wind adv along the immediate coast this
weekend), and we will likely remain rain free. The ridge that has
been building over the area the last 24 hrs will continue to
slide east with the ridge axis east of the area later this morning
and southwest flow aloft in place by midday. This ridge will move
over the eastern half of the CONUS remain in place through the
weekend. As we have mentioned it will cause multiple disturbances
to ride southwest to northeast across the Plains and into the
Upper MS Valley remaining well away from the area. With each
disturbance the ridge northwestern periphery of the ridge will
weaken will and erode some but will hold strong over the
southeastern CONUS through Sunday night.

Impacts over the next 3 days will be minimal which is great with a
few festivals occurring over the weekend. That said there are a
few but surprisingly temps are not one. Typically late April and
early May we can see some heat issues. Even though highs in the
past aren`t obscene they have been warm enough along with deep LL
moisture that heat can catch people off guard. This is mainly
because we all haven`t gotten acclimated yet to the warming high
humidity conditions and typical Apparent Temps that would never
cause much concern down here can quickly catch people. It is
usually those first warm weekends but luckily even with highs
expected in the mid to upper 80s dewpoints will remain in the
lower to mid 60s so the Apparent Temps will not be much warmer
than the actual temps. However the one possible impact could be
winds. Winds will not be dangerous but wind gusts could be over 30
mph maybe even approaching 35 mph near the coasts and that could
have some impacts on unsecured tents, so just be aware and tie
them down just in case.

The other small impact through the weekend will be minor coastal
flooding. Tides will ramp up tomorrow with the highest tides
expected on Sunday. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
Saturday and will need an additional one for Sunday. For greater
details on the tide check the Marine section. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Medium range models continue to have decent agreement. The
continuity and consistency has been pretty good even though
there have been some small trends shifting to less confidence on
rain Monday and Monday night. Latest NBM is a good blend and see
no reason to deviate.

Heading into the new work week the eastern CONUS ridge will
finally break down as the broad L/W trough over the western CONUS
slowly shift east. This should finally allow for showers and
thunderstorms to push into the area but there is a question on how
the ridge behaves. Does it break down allowing for a weak front to
drift into the area along with higher rain chances or does it just
get suppressed into the Gulf with the northern periphery of the
ridge trying to hold firm along the Gulf coast and thus shunting
most of the rain to our north and then northeast. Right now feel
like there should be enough of a breakdown that we see rain late
Monday and into Tuesday but there is a chance that the southern
half of the CWA could see very little rain if not remaining rain
free. This will also not bring much of any cool down with
afternoon highs likely only a few degrees cooler thanks to an
increase in cloud cover.

As we get deeper into the week the ridge does try to reestablish
itself over Mexico and the western Gulf. However, it looks like
multiple impulses will stream across the southwestern CONUS and
into the Lower MS Valley to help suppress the ridge and hopefully
bring in a few more rounds of rain. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR at all terminals at forecast issuance, with only some cirrus
moving across the area. Can`t rule out some stratus or light fog
at sunrise, but fog threat appears to be less tonight than it was
the previous 2 nights, and that ended up being rather limited. The
only significant visibility restriction carried in the forecast
was the potential for 3SM at KMCB around sunrise, and even that
wasn`t prevailing. If there`s going to be an impact on Friday it
would be sustained southeasterly winds near or above 15 knots at
most terminals from about 15z until the loss of surface heating
toward sunset. Could see a few gusts to 25 knots or so.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

High pressure has settled well off to our northeast over the
northeast CONUS while a developing sfc low on the lee side of the
Rockies over the CO/KS border. This has already led to a
tightening of the pressure gradient across the coastal waters.
Winds are increasing and west of the MS delta winds have already
been bouncing around 15-20 kt and will likely remain at this
intensity through today while the rest of the coastal waters will
see winds ramp up later today. This sfc low will deepen as it
moves into the Upper MS Valley by Saturday morning however as it
moves away the pressure gradient will remain tight if not get
tighter. This will be due to the sfc high over the northeast
moving south becoming centered east of the Carolinas by Sunday
evening. At the same time an additional sfc low will develop and
move northeast across the Plains. This will keep strong southeast
flow in place across much of the eastern Gulf providing an
impressive fetch for 72 to 96 hrs. This will help to do 2 things,
one it will likely lead to a swell train moving from southeast to
northwest across our coastal waters. This will likely lead to seas
being higher than what is typical for the magnitude of winds we
are anticipating. Second the persistent onshore flow will combine
with the Spring tide. We just had the full moon a few days ago and
the astronomical tide was at its peak yesterday with another 3 to
4 days of large tidal ranges. This strong and persistent
southeast winds will lead to tides likely peaking out about 1.5 to
2/2.5 ft abv astronomical tide at high tide Saturday and
especially Sunday. A coastal flood advisory has been issued for
Saturday but only for the south facing shores of coastal MS along
with the west and south facing shores of the tidal lakes and
coastal St Bernard.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  65  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  87  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  84  69  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  84  71  84  70 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  80  69  81  68 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  82  66  82  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for
     LAZ058-070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-570-
     572.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB