531
FXUS64 KLIX 060449
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1149 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A shortwave ridge axis will remain over the area through Tuesday
night, and this will help suppress most convective activity even
as a series of weak shortwave features rides over the top of the
ridge axis and through the Lower Mississippi Valley. At most, an
isolated to widely scattered shower or storm could develop during
peak heating hours tomorrow afternoon and again on Tuesday
afternoon, and the most likely area for development will be across
Southwest Mississippi and portions of Louisiana to the north of
I-12. Any convection will remain weak and low-topped as a fairly
strong capping inversion in the mid-levels remains in place. Any
convection will quickly dissipate after sunset with dry conditions
expected by the early evening hours both tonight, tomorrow night,
and Tuesday night. The combination of lighter boundary layer flow
and ample low level moisture will support some patchy fog and low
stratus development each night. The fog and stratus will quickly
clear by mid-morning as temperatures warm. Have stuck with NBM
deterministic values for temperatures through Tuesday night with
readings rising into the mid to upper 80s and lows dipping into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The deep layer shortwave ridge axis will continue to induce strong
subsidence across the area on Wednesday. This will result in a
very strong mid-level capping inversion, and have no mention of
rain in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will
also warm beneath the highly subsident airmass with readings
projected to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A few
locations could approach record high levels. Even warmer
temperaturesare expected on Thursday as highs climb into the low
to mid 90s over inland areas. These high temperatures will likely
break records and those who are most vulnerable to heat should
limit outdoor activities on Thursday. These warm values on
Thursday are being driven by both ample subsidence aloft and some
compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front.

The cold front will move into the Thursday night, and some
scattered convection will likely develop ahead of the front as it
moves into a moist and unstable airmass in the low levels. Lapse
rates will improve aloft as the influence of the ridge diminishes,
and there could be a stronger storm or two as the front moves
through. Otherwise, conditions do not look favorable for severe
convection due to a lack of substantial shear. The front will
clear the coast on Friday and a cooler and more stable high
pressure system will advect into the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will fall back to more normal levels in the lower 80s
on Friday, and could even cool to slightly below average by
Saturday as the heart of the northern stream cold pool moves in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Most of the high cloud cover is rapidly shifting eastward with a
shortwave that will be entirely east of the area in the next few
hours. Main question will be extent of low clouds/fog around
sunrise. While MVFR ceilings are likely at pretty much all
terminals around sunrise, IFR or lower ceilings will be likely
briefly at KMCB/KASD/KHDC/KHUM and perhaps KBTR. Do expect quick
improvement around 14-15z, to at least MVFR. Most or all terminals
will experience VFR conditions during the afternoon hours. The
local area looks to be between shortwaves during the daytime hours
on Monday, so the threat of convective activity looks to be rather
limited, if any occurs at all. Lower clouds will again return
overnight Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Through Wednesday, the region will remain on the western periphery
of a broad surface high. This will keep prevailing southerly flow
of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet in place. By Thursday,
the approach of a cold front will result in a slightly tighter
pressure gradient over the coastal waters, and this should push
winds into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots. The front is
expected to slip through the waters on Friday. Winds will shift to
the north and remain elevated in exercise caution range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  69  87 /  10  40  20  20
BTR  70  87  72  89 /  10  40  10  10
ASD  71  86  72  88 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  73  85  74  87 /  20  20  10  10
GPT  73  84  74  85 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  71  84  72  84 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG