315
FXUS64 KLUB 091830
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
130 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The CWA will remain under the influence of broad, southwesterly flow
aloft as a mid/upper-level low on the southwestern flank of a
longwave, positively-tilted trough meanders over the central Rocky
Mountains and Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front has become
quasi-stationary to the southwest of the CWA where post-frontal
winds will continue to steadily veer eastward while remaining
blustery as pressure tendencies gradually rise. Strong, WAA atop the
post-frontal airmass will maintain a distinct warm nose that will
cap mixing heights to near 800 mb for the remainder of the day and
into tomorrow. The field of boundary-layer stratocu will remain
intact across the Rolling Plains throughout the rest of the
afternoon while gradually advecting and/or forming on the Caprock,
with the stratocu persisting throughout the overnight hours into
tomorrow across portions of the CWA. Pressure tendencies should
neutralize by late Friday morning with the easterly breeze remaining
intact at around 10-15 mph amidst mild temperatures as mid-level
cloud cover steadily thickens upon the arrival of a 700 mb trough.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The weekend continues to look relatively cool and wet as an upper
level low from near Las Vegas, NV, Friday evening to the Four
Corners Saturday evening and the central High Plains Sunday evening.
As mid/upper level ridging shifts east of the forecast area Friday
night, increasing upper level difluence and mid level isentropic
lift over the cool air mass in place across the forecast area will
result in cloudy skies and increasing shower chances late Friday
night and through Saturday. Progged CAPE values available to the
isentropic lift are mainly between 500 and 750 J/kg which would
favor showers and the profile looks closer to moist adiabatic. This
would favor showers, but cannot rule out some thunder while rainfall
intensity favors light to occasionally moderate. Conditions are
progged to begin favoring thunder on Sunday as the main lift from
the low moves out overhead, skies attempt to clear from west to
east, southerly low level brings warmer temperatures, which in turn
leads to progged MUCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg. High
temperatures on Saturday look to be by far the coolest of the
forecast period with low ceilings limit diurnal range. Will favor
NBM at this time which is basically the midpoint between the cooler
MET and warmer MAV MOS numbers, although the cooler MET could win
out if stratus remains thick and widespread. Breaks in the overcast
and the low level warm advection on Sunday will warm temperatures,
especially western zones where more insolation is likely Sunday
afternoon.

Model evolution in the 12Z run is pretty consistent with previous
runs favoring the upper low moving to western Oklahoma Monday. This
is to be followed by upper level short wave ridging before another
upper level low opens up and ejects eastward toward the forecast
area. Monday could see some late day showers/thunder across the east
with some lingering mid/upper level cyclonic curvature overhead.
After warm and dry conditions underneath the ridge on Tuesday, the
next chance for thunderstorms will come Wednesday with the
approaching low/trough. Temperatures through the Monday to Wednesday
revert to warmer than normal while a cold front could bring
temperatures back to the mean on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR will prevail for the TAF period at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. CIGs
associated with the stratocu field over KCDS and partially into
KPVW will remain at or around 5 kft AGL or greater for the rest of
the afternoon and into tonight. The east-northeasterly breeze will
diminish after dark and increase once again after sunrise tomorrow
at all terminals.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...09