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000
FXUS64 KLZK 180522 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft will become more zonal by tomorrow,
with an embedded shortwave moving thru the flow.

At the surface, cyclogenesis will spin up a surface low on the lee
of the Rockies, which will track easterly overnight over OK into
eastern MO. Southerly surface flow from the Gulf into AR is
continuing to bring deeper moisture into the region.

A trailing surface cold front will start to push into NW AR during
the day. Models show little or no capping along and ahead of the
front tomorrow, and sfc based CAPE values will top out in the
vicinity of 2500 j/kg during the afternoon hours.

Thunderstorms should start to become more widespread during the
afternoon hours, and the cold front looks like it will push rapidly
thru the state during the evening and overnight hours.

Deep shear is lacking, but near the surface it looks like there will
be an adequate amount of directional shear which could cause some
rotating updrafts in a few stronger storms.

Overall the slight risk from SPC looks reasonable for tomorrow.

The front will bring a considerable cool-down to the state. Highs
tomorrow will be in the 80`s statewide, dropping about 15 degrees in
most areas by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SUNDAY:

At the sfc, a cold front will track across Arkansas during the day
on Friday before becoming a stalled boundary near the I-20 corridor
across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi by Friday night just south
of the CWA. The now, stationary front, although south of the state
still allow for increased rain and isolated thunderstorm chances to
persist into the Saturday and much of Sunday before being ushered
southward toward the Gulf Coast of the CONUS and away from the CWA
by later Sunday into Sunday night. Expect showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the state ending over this timeframe and ending
on Sunday from north to south across the state over time.
Temperatures over this period aided by overcast skies and rain-
cooled air will be below normal for low temperatures and near normal
for high temperatures.

MONDAY/TUESDAY:

Sfc high pressure builds in between two frontal boundaries in
conjunction with upper level ridging over the Rocky Mountain region
of the CONUS that will slide eastward toward the state which will
equate to fair, dry, and quiet weather to begin next week. Expect
mostly to partly cloudy skies over this period with temperatures
beginning a rebound from near to below normal on Monday to slightly
above normal on Monday.

NEXT WEDNESDAY:

The next SWT approaches the area and the weather conditions overall
become unsettled across the Natural State with increased POP chances
returning to the region. Temperatures with respect to both low and
high temperatures will be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Some lower cigs expected across area terminals closer to daybreak
with some improvement expected throughout the day. While some
terminals will see VFR conditions Thursday, some MVFR cigs will
persist at times. Rain and storms are possible after 19/00z from
north to central Arkansas. Overall coverage is still in question,
but went ahead and introduced some prob30 groups to account for
the possibility. Winds will generally be S-SW with gusts
approaching 20 kts at times during the day. A cold front will
begin to move from N-S across the area near the end of the
period, bringing N-NW winds in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  55  69  50 /  50  70  10  30
Camden AR         84  61  71  53 /  30  60  20  30
Harrison AR       86  48  66  46 /  60  30  10  30
Hot Springs AR    84  58  69  50 /  40  70  20  40
Little Rock   AR  87  60  70  53 /  40  80  20  30
Monticello AR     84  63  72  56 /  30  60  20  30
Mount Ida AR      84  56  69  50 /  40  60  20  50
Mountain Home AR  87  49  68  47 /  70  50  10  30
Newport AR        86  56  69  52 /  50  80  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     85  60  69  54 /  40  80  20  30
Russellville AR   88  55  70  51 /  50  60  20  30
Searcy AR         86  56  69  50 /  50  80  20  30
Stuttgart AR      84  60  69  54 /  40  80  20  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67