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000
FXUS64 KMAF 160523
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1223 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Main concern for the short term remains wind, fire, and dust
concerns west and evening severe storms east. UL low this
afternoon is over the UT/CO border continuing east. Main jet
streak is spreading from AZ into NM with a deepening surface
cyclone over NE CO. A dryline extends southward from it, running
just east of the NM-TX state line to west of Odessa and then east
of Ft. Stockton down into Mexico. East of the dryline, severe
weather is the main concern. 2PM SPC Mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE with 50-60 knots of shear. Ingredients certainly
are in place for severe storms, but strong capping will be the
limiting factor. If storms can form, all hazards are possible with
very large hail the main concern. Timing would be early evening
before storms move to the east and northeast. A tornado watch is
in effect until 9PM for the far eastern Permian Basin.

West of the dryline, strong winds and very dry conditions will
continue critical fire concerns. Gusts of 45-55 MPH have been
common toward the Pecos River Valley. These winds will continue
through the evening before gradually subsiding.

Quieter weather is expected for Tuesday. It will remain breezy on
the backside of the low, but main thrust of energy will continue
to depart. Highs will also not be as warm in the wake of a Pacific
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Wednesday looks pretty quiet. Dry, zonal flow will establish
across the CWA, allowing highs to rebound. Flow is weak throughout
the column, so winds will be on the lighter side. Much of the area
will see repeat conditions for Thursday, but a fairly strong cold
front will be working its way southward. GFS shows it reaching the
northern border of the CWA by Thursday evening, but the NAM is
much faster. NBM 10th percentile picks up on this earlier passage
with the 25th percentile neglecting it. If the front arrives
early, highs across Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry counties will be
10+ degrees cooler than what`s forecast now. Regardless, the front
will push through the area through the evening and overnight
hours, making it to the Mexico border by Friday morning.

Rain / thunderstorm chances enter the picture starting Friday
afternoon and evening ahead of a s/w. Initially, it will be across
mainly the eastern 2/3rd or 1/2 of the CWA, but chances spread
west overnight Friday and into Saturday. Eventually though,
chances start pushing back east as drier air moves back in with
the approach of the UL trough axis. All areas look to be dry again
by Monday as U/L ridging fills in behind the trough. Temperatures
Friday drop to near or below normal then much below normal
Saturday with the coolest day on Sunday. Temperatures begin to
recover on Monday but still below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Most locations have seen gusts drop off, with only elevated winds
continuing the next few hours at KHOB and KPEQ. Winds will remain
westerly for the TAF period, once again becoming gusty in the
late morning/early afternoon at all TAF sites. High clouds will be
increasing through the day from south to north. As these will be
diurnally driven winds, gusts die off quickly around sunset. VFR
expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Primary fire concerns are the rest of the afternoon, especially
toward the Pecos River Valley and Guadalupe Mountains. Poor
overnight recoveries are expected as well for much of the area,
but winds will subside. Moisture east of a dryline will foster
better recoveries for eastern counties. By tomorrow afternoon, dry
air overtakes the entire CWA with min RH values dropping into the
single digits. Winds top out 10 to 20 MPH, so elevated fire
concerns will continue. Higher elevations will see near critical.
Wednesday and Thursday will continue to see very dry conditions,
but winds will only top out 10 to 15 MPH. A cold front begins to
push north to south, improving RH values. Rain / storm chances
return Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               53  89  60  94 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 51  89  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  91  63  95 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            58  90  58  95 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           54  80  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    50  85  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    48  84  47  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     55  88  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   56  88  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     53  91  56  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...88