468
ACUS11 KWNS 040028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040027
TXZ000-OKZ000-040230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...western North Texas into adjacent southwestern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 040027Z - 040230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing convection across North Texas -- from west of
Childress to the Wichita Falls/Jacksboro/Mineral Wells vicinity --
may expand in coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours.  New
WW issuance could become necessary, if convection can organize
further.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of northeastward-moving storms west of
Childress will soon exit Tornado Watch 178.  Some model signal is
evident that the storms could persist -- and even grow upscale a bit
-- over the next couple of hours.  The currently observed
environment -- mixed-layer CAPE near or exceeding 3000 J/kg -- would
certainly support this potential.  While shear remains somewhat
modest, veering winds with height are providing ample shear for
mid-level updraft rotation.  Additionally, other storms from near
Wichita Falls south to near Mineral Wells -- within generally the
same background environment -- have also maintained intensity.

We will continue to monitor convective evolution in the short term.
Signs of increased coverage or upscale growth of this convection
could warrant WW consideration.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34120118 34810004 35129893 34949794 34469706 33629674
            32589790 32609850 34120118