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000
FXUS64 KMEG 232029
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
329 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A weak cold front will bring a low chance of showers to the region
late tonight through tomorrow morning. Another beautiful day is
top for Wednesday with highs in the 70s and low humidity.
Unsettled weather will begin Thursday and persist through
Saturday. Warm and humid conditions will result in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms are possible early next week as a cold front
moves across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A dry and windy day across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are near normal with highs in the mid 70s and winds
between 15 and 25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph. A wind
advisory remains in effect through 8PM CDT for the strongest winds
up and near the Missouri Bootheel. Winds will subside after
sundown.

A weak cold front and associated shortwave will move into the
region after midnight and weaken as it moves south. A few showers
and isolated storms are possible through early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will remain nearly a carbon copy on Wednesday,
albeit without the strong wind.

Rain chances will return to the Mid-South early Thursday as the
aforementioned front lifts back north as a warm front across the
region. Showers and thunderstorms are possible as the front lifts
north, however, upper level heights may actually build and cap
storms downstream of a deepening longwave trough near the Four
Corners Region.

The Mid-South will remain just east of the main storm track
through the weekend. This will result in just isolated to
scattered convection on Friday and Saturday, mainly west of the
Mississippi River. The aforementioned longwave trough will take
on a negative tilt and eject into the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Sunday. A surface low and cold front are progged to develop over
the Central Plains and move into the Mid-South Sunday into
Monday. There remains some timing disagreements between synoptic
solutions, which could affect the current SPC Outlooks.
Nonetheless, widespread storms look likely and a few could be
strong to severe, mainly west of the Mississippi River.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Mainly just a wind forecast over the next 24-30 hours although a
few showers associated with a weak cold front may approach JBR,
MEM and MKL during the late night hours. Winds should shift
northerly between 09 and 12z at JBR, MKL and MEM and any showers
should end behind the front.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018.

MO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS