435
FXUS62 KMFL 031135
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
735 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

While models depict a rather complex weather pattern dominating the
whole E CONUS on Friday, closer to the area a mid level ridge and
sfc high pressure will remain in control of the peninsula weather
during the weekend. A transient trough and associated storm
systems well to the north will flatten a bit the ridge today, with
pressure gradients again becoming a little tighter in the
afternoon hours. Thus, expect periods of easterly winds becoming
gusty, mainly over the Atlantic coast of SoFlo.

Models also keep low dew points in place with the upstream air mass,
which will help in keeping POPs/rain chances low. The only lifting
mechanism will be again afternoon sea breezes, which will serve as
focal points for limited convection to develop. But with the
stronger easterly flow, it is likely that most of the shower/storm
activity will be pushed towards the interior/western portions of
SoFlo.

The weather pattern becomes a little more favorable for afternoon
showers on Saturday as an area of enhanced moisture moves into SoFlo
from the Atlantic side. But model layer analyses keep most of the
moisture in a shallow layer around 850-700 mb, along with highest
POPs in the 25-40 percent range, favoring the Gulf coast. Any deeper
convection should again follow the enhanced lifting of sea breeze
boundaries, although a key difference Saturday afternoon is that
overall coverage of showers seems more widespread than previous
days.

Despite the better chances of rain on Saturday, temperatures will
remain warm on both days with afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s for the Atlantic coast and interior areas, and around 90 for the
west coast of SoFlo.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Long range models show mid-level ridging persisting across the
region, keeping the ongoing easterly wind regime over SoFlo through
much of the work week. Meanwhile, the remaining enhanced low level
moisture from the weekend will gradually dry out, with mainly single
digit POPs by mid week. Thus, expect better chances for a few
showers and an isolated storm or two on Sunday and Monday afternoon.
Again, deeper convection should follow the sea breeze boundaries as
the easterly flow push them inland.

Expect temperatures to remain around or slightly higher than
normals. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90
across southwest Florida and interior areas, while remaining in the
mid 80s along the east coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s,

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period
although MVFR cigs are possible if a shower directly impacts a
terminal. Generally easterly winds prevail through the period
with gusts to 20kts possible during the day. KAPF will see an
afternoon wind shift to the W-SW again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Outside of periods of gusty easterly winds, overall benign
conditions should prevail across the coastal waters through the
weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each
day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.
Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and
2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds could peak in the 12-15 kts
range out of the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  73  84  74 /  20  20  30  10
West Kendall     86  70  86  71 /  20  20  30  10
Opa-Locka        86  72  86  72 /  20  20  30  10
Homestead        84  73  85  73 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  83  73  82  74 /  20  20  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  83  73  83  74 /  20  20  30  20
Pembroke Pines   87  73  87  73 /  20  20  30  10
West Palm Beach  84  71  84  72 /  20  20  30  10
Boca Raton       84  73  85  73 /  20  20  30  20
Naples           89  70  88  71 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...Hadi