Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 270526
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
126 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A mid-level ridge over the area continues to slide eastward today
as an upper level trough moves into the central US. Another warm
and mostly sunny day is expected as surface flow remains
southeasterly and will attain more of a southerly component by
this evening. The associated frontal boundary with aforementioned
system will reach northern Florida tonight and will push across
South Florida on Thursday afternoon bringing a chance for a few
showers across northern portions of the area early Thursday
morning and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon. The cold front with this incoming trough will slowly
wash out as it progresses through the Florida Peninsula, evidenced
by weakening theta-e advection in its approach. As a result,
strong convective activity is not anticipated with this system.
Nevertheless, scattered showers are still expected with this
frontal passage and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Winds
will shift from southeast to southwest through the day Thursday
and eventually northwesterly as the front pushes through.

Temperatures today will reach the mid to upper 80s across inland
South Florida with low to mid 80s along the coasts. A bit cooler
on Thursday with the anticipated frontal boundary passage so
expect highs in the lower 80s across all of South Florida.
Overnight lows will be quite warm, in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

After the front passes by end of day on Thursday, a quiet weather
pattern will re-develop as a high pressure ridge rebuilds through
the atmospheric column over the southeast states. This ridge is
expected to last through the end of the long term period as it
amplifies due to being located downstream of a vastly deepening
trough in the southwest CONUS. Therefore, expect dry conditions
from Thursday night through the end of the long term period ending
early next week as the region will be sitting under this ridge
for an extended period.

Temperatures will be a few degrees lower on Friday behind the
front with most areas approaching 80 degrees, and then a gradual
warming trend will take place each day after that as the ridge
builds over the area. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s can be
expected over the weekend and then eventually mid to upper 80s
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Generally VFR through much of the period though some bouts of MVFR
cigs cannot be ruled out, particularly late in the period as a
cold front approaches the region. Southeasterly to southerly wind
will turn southwesterly at times in the afternoon at APF and later
in the period as the front comes closer along the east coast
terminals. Rain chances will be highest inland near Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon until the front arrives.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Hazardous marine conditions remain across portions of the local
waters with a moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze. Hazardous
seas up to around 6 to 7 feet will be possible across the northern
Atlantic waters through this evening. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the northern Atlantic waters through 8PM
this evening. Behind the frontal passage on Thursday, hazardous
conditions will return across all local waters with potential
gusts to gale force.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all Atlantic
beaches today due to breezy southeasterly flow. The high risk will
likely persist through much of the remainder of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            83  73  84  63 /  10  10  30   0
West Kendall     85  71  86  60 /  10  10  30   0
Opa-Locka        86  72  86  62 /  10  10  30   0
Homestead        84  72  85  61 /  10  10  30   0
Fort Lauderdale  82  73  84  64 /  10  10  30   0
N Ft Lauderdale  83  73  85  63 /  10  10  40   0
Pembroke Pines   85  72  86  62 /  10  10  30   0
West Palm Beach  83  71  84  62 /  10  10  40   0
Boca Raton       84  72  86  62 /  10  10  40   0
Naples           84  71  78  59 /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...RAG


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