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000
FXUS66 KMFR 210532
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1032 PM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Updated AVIATION Section

.DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track for tonight. A weak cold front
brought scattered light showers this afternoon, but very little
activity remains and is limited to mountaintops. Tonight will be
colder than Friday night, but below freezing temperatures will be
generally limited to northern parts of Lake and Klamath
counties.Cold air behind the front will bring cooler daytime highs
on Sunday before unseasonable warmth returns on Monday. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z TAFs...Overall, conditions will be VFR through
Sunday evening, though patchy MVFR ceilings could impact the Umpqua
Basin with areas of higher terrain obscured near and west of the
Cascades through Sunday morning. Gusty north winds will develop
along the coast (up to 30 kt) and in the Umpqua Basin (around 20 kt)
Sunday afternoon, then subside Sunday evening. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Saturday, April 20, 2024...High pressure
will build in tonight and remain just offshore on Sunday with a
thermal trough developing along the south coast. North winds
increase across the waters early Sunday with moderate to strong
winds, reaching gale force south of Cape Blanco Sunday afternoon
into Monday evening. This will result in steep to very steep wind-
driven seas across the waters.

Conditions are likely to improve Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of
the next cold front on Wednesday night into Thursday. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 225 PM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024/

DISCUSSION...A weak front will bring a few showers along the coast,
coastal counties and portions of Douglas county into early this
evening. Elsewhere it will remain dry. Satellite image shows clouds
increasing as the front pushes towards the coast. Ahead of the front
are varying amounts of high clouds west of the Cascades, but they
will also spill over to the east side during the course of the day.

A few showers will linger north of the Umpqua Divide and northern
Cascades this evening, then it will be dry overnight tonight. Behind
the front will be an increasing onshore flow and we could see clouds
getting banked up along the Umpqua Divide and west facing slopes of
the Cascades and north facing slopes of the Siskiyous.

Sunday will be dry with warmer afternoon temperatures for most
interior locations. There will be varying amounts of high clouds
moving in from the west, but the sun is expected to be visible for
most, if not the entire day.

Dry weather will continue through Monday with weak upper ridging
that will quickly push east as an upper trough approaches from the
west. Tuesday, an upper trough will set up southwest of the forecast
area. Models continue to show evidence of increasing instability
along with a weak trigger Tuesday afternoon and early evening and
could be enough to warrant a slight chance of thunderstorms in
northern California and a small portion of the eastside.

We`ll catch a break Tuesday night with weak upper troughing over our
area and weak instability. We`ll keep a slight chance of showers for
portions of the eastside.

Wednesday upper troughing remains and instability will once again
increase during the day. This is due in part with the interaction of
a broader upper trough just off the southern California coast and
the one to the west. Models and ensembles suggest precipitation
chances will be highest in northern Cal and northeast into southern
Klamath and south central Lake county.

Another and stronger upper trough moves into the area Thursday
bringing more widespread precipitation. Upper troughiness remains
over our area the rest of next week, possibly into next weekend
which will result in cooler temperatures and high chance for showers
over a good portion of the forecast area. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT
     Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for
     PZZ350-370.

&&

$$