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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251040
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
640 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with limited moisture will and cross the region
this morning. High pressure builds back into the area from the
north this afternoon and eventually slides offshore this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 640 AM Thursday...Precipitation from earlier last night
associated with the prefrontal trough has moved just offshore
early this morning. The cold front was currently located over
central NC coastal region and will be moving southeast across
southeastern NC over the next couple of hours. Not expecting
much if any precipitation with the frontal passage this morning.
Later this afternoon, however, isolated showers will be
possible across eastern NC especially along and south of Highway
70 where the gradient will remain weak and allow a sea breeze
to form and move inland during peak heating. Convergence with
the sea breeze and the developing post frontal northerly flow
combined with diurnal heating should be enough to trigger
isolated showers as CAPE values of 250-300 J/kg are forecast.
Any showers should rapidly dissipate by early evening with the
loss of heating and the increasing post frontal northerly flow
finally extending into southeast NC.

Shallow fog early this morning will dissipate rapidly after
sunrise as the front sweeps through and northerly winds
increase. Temps will continue warm inland with highs in the mid
to upper 70s but will be cooler, only around 60 along the
northern Outer Banks in onshore flow. N to NE winds will be
gusty along the coast following the passage of the cold front
this afternoon into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure ridges in from the
north tonight resulting in cooler air moving into the area.
Guidance is beginning to indicate that an area of low stratus
will develop along and just off of the Outer Banks by early
evening then drift westward and inland across portions of
eastern NC tonight. Right now most areas east of Highway 17
should become mostly cloudy overnight with the possibility that
these clouds could extend further west into the coastal plain.
Areas along the coast will experience gusty winds with lighter
northerly breezes inland. Lows will range from the upper 40s
inland to the mid 50s immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating the region.

High pressure will remain near the eastern seaboard through the
end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Low moving
through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this
stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains if it will be
pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If
the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the
weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will
see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this
update for Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the
most likely outcome. High will shift to our south in the
weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become
southwesterly at the start of next week. Another frontal system
will be moving through mid week next week. How the high behaves
will play a role on how far south the higher moisture along the
cold front extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with
higher precip chances expected in farther north than eastern NC.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the long term
(mid-upper 80s inland), aided by SW flow with the surface high
to our east over the Western Atlantic Ocean.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 640 AM Thursday...A brief period of occasional sub VFR
conditions will occur through 12Z this morning in shallow fog
which will rapidly dissipate as heating commences. VFR
conditions will occur for the most of the remainder of the TAF
period though an isolated afternoon shower will be possible.
Late this evening through the overnight hours there will be a
good potential for IFR ceilings as low clouds spread west from
the coast tonight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...VFR conditions will persist through
Monday with high pressure prevails over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 640 AM Thursday..SCA`s continue in effect for the sounds
and coastal waters today and tonight for gusty post frontal
northerly winds. Early this morning the cold front was located
over the central Outer Banks and will begin moving southeast
across the southern waters this morning. Ahead of the front W to
SW winds were 5-154 kt. Behind the front winds will shift to
the N to NE and increase to 15-25 kt this afternoon and tonight.
Seas currently 3-5 ft will build to 4-7 ft tonight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 410 AM Thursday...Surface high pressure over the
Northeastern U.S. will nose south over the waters on Friday as a
weak boundary remains south of the area. The ridge will shift
off the coast on Saturday allowing flow to become more easterly,
then eventually southeasterly by Sunday morning. A new surface
ridge will develop across the Southeastern states and shift off
the Carolina coast by Sunday afternoon, shifting winds
southwesterly and persisting SW through Tuesday.

NW winds will diminish below SCA levels Friday, though seas will
linger at or above 6 ft through much of the day for the coastal
waters. May see SCAs persist until Friday evening for the
central coastal waters, Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet. Winds
and seas subside below SCA levels for the weekend into early
next week with generally good boating conditions anticipated.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG/RJ
AVIATION...DAG/JME
MARINE...DAG/JME