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000
FNUS73 KMKX 212031
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Peachy Road South...US FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
331 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 21.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Temperature and RH forecasts remain on track at this time, but
observed wind gusts (at nearby Fond du Lac Airport) have slightly
over-performed. The previous forecast called for 18 mph wind
gusts for the remainder of the afternoon. The new expectation is
frequent gusts to 23 mph, with occasional gusts as high as 35 mph
possible. Wind direction remains west-northwest. Winds are still
expected to rapidly decline around sunset.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........39 at ignition...Max 59.
RH..................62 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /17100 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /104400 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (120200 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   2   7   14  18  25  33  35  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............39  44  47  50  52  54  57  57  58
RH..............62  51  43  39  36  34  29  29  27
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   10  11  11  11  9
20 FT wind gust.8   10  14  16  17  17  23  23  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.2
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.14  17  20  20  21  22  23  23  23
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100017  60  78  89  104 120 136 146 144

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy frost
                    overnight. Areas of frost after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 32.
RH..................Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph shifting to the west 8
                    to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (111500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (2500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........33  37  28  23  16  11  7   2   2   2   2   4
Weather cov.....                                PTY PTY ARS ARS
Weather type....                                FST FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  55  51  47  42  40  39  38  37  34  33  34
RH..............28  34  42  51  62  64  70  73  75  82  89  82
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.14  13  11  8   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...6.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.21  13  12  10  8   8   8   9   10  10  10  10
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/1000112 9   7   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (45-55 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........Max 65.
RH..................Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 6 to 15 mph with
                    gusts to around 23 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph increasing to 22 to 31
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (78100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (106600
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   12  8   9   9   18  26  35  36  36  37  52
Weather cov.....ARS ARS
Weather type....FST FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............34  35  43  50  55  59  61  62  63  64  64  64
RH..............82  78  65  54  47  37  32  28  27  27  28  29
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   6   7   9   11  12  13  14  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.6   6   10  13  16  18  19  20  21  23  23  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.8
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  14  18  22  25  25  28  30  31  31
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10003   3   5   12  37  78  107 114 129 138 138 129

$$
Forecaster...BS
Requested by...Sean
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411571.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sean_sallmann@fws.gov