219
FXUS64 KMOB 011436
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
936 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...

Issued at 935 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Allowed the dense fog advisory to expire at 9am as area
observations indicate that the dense fog has lifted in most
locations. There is still a considerable amount of low stratus
that remains. Satellite shows that the low clouds are eroding and
most areas should be mostly sunny to sunny by late morning. This
then sets the stage for a very warm afternoon with highs reaching
the mid to upper 80s. A few locations may hit the 90 degree mark,
especially in southeast Mississippi. Not expecting much in the way
of diurnal convection today with area soundings from LIX and BHM
showing precipitable water values well below one inch. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 745 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Patchy dense fog gradually dissipating this morning, but until
about 01/14z or so some locations will have IFR to LIFR ceilings
and visibility. Otherwise VFR conditions today and this evening,
with areas of at least MVFR to IFR fog again tonight. Light south
to southeast winds are expected through tonight. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024/

.New UPDATE...

UPDATE...

Issued at 510 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Areas of fog restricting visibilities to at least 0.25 miles,
even less in some locations, have increased in coverage and as a
result we have gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for
portions of the forecast area. Areas impacted extend from Stone
and George counties of southeast MS, eastward across the coastal
counties of AL and the western FL panhandle, and also the counties
of interior south central AL (generally along the east of I-65).
The Advisory is in effect until 9 AM. Grids and all products have
been updated. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Low clouds and areas of fog across portions of the forecast area
this morning will persist until a few hours after sunrise this
morning. We are monitoring visibilities and may have to issue a
Dense Fog Advisory at some point, but as of now, while there area
areas of fog occurring, observations show visibilities generally in
the 0.5 to 1.5 mile range (which is above the below 0.25 mile
criteria for dense fog). Only Crestview is indicating a visibility
below 0.25 miles at this time, but visibilities have been bouncing
up and down. In addition, visibilities on most of the ALDOT traffic
cams across the area look fairly good for the most part, although
there are a few locations where visibilities sharply drop. The fog
does seem to be a little more widespread over interior locations. We
will continue to monitor, but motorists should at least be prepared
for some areas of fog, possibly dense, on the morning commute.

Otherwise, ridging is expected across the area today through
Thursday. Southwest to west mid/upper level flow is expected in the
weak riding aloft. Subsidence from the ridging should result in only
a few clouds and allow daytime high temperatures to heat up well
into the 80s. Will not carry a PoP today or Thursday, but some weak
shortwave energy in the flow aloft on Thursday could result in an
isolated shower or storm, particularly over our interior MS zones,
and a slight PoP may need to be introduced there on Thursday with
the afternoon forecast package. Otherwise above normal temperatures
are expected. Daytime highs should rise into the mid and upper 80s
today for interior locations (with the warmest temperatures over our
MS zones) and into the the upper 80s over all of the interior on
Thursday. Highs both days along the coast however will be in the low
to mid 80s due to a slightly moderating onshore flow. Lows tonight
generally ranging from the lower 60s over inland areas to the mid
and upper 60s closer to the coast, and even a few lower 70s along
the immediate beaches and barrier islands. DS/12

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

An upper ridge that has built north over the eastern Conus deflects
a series of shortwave troughs north of the forecast area Thursday
night through Saturday. Deep layer southerly flow has become
organized through the latter half of the week, bringing Gulf
moisture inland. This plume has shifted east to over the forecast
area and nearby. With the upper ridge maintaining enough strength to
deflect the bulk of the energy north of the forecast area, this when
combined with subsidence from the upper ridge, highest PoPs are
expected to be over northwest and northern portions of the forecast
area with the passing energy. Also, coverage is expected to be
isolated to low end scattered at most. Subsidence from the upper
ridge will also help to keep temperatures at above to well above
seasonal norms through the period. High temperatures in the mid 80s
to near 90 well inland with around 80s south of I-10 to the coast
are expected. Low temperatures are expected to range from around 60
to the low 60s north of Highway 84 to mid 60s/upper 60s closer to
and along the coast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Could be some areas of fog over bays, sounds and near
shore waters this morning. Otherwise winds will mainly be light
southeasterly through the week and into the weekend as surface high
pressure ridges into the southeast states and the northern Gulf from
the east. Slightly higher winds (up to 15 knots at times) will be
possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an
enhanced seas breeze circulation. No significant hazardous are
expected for small craft through the period. DS/12

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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