912
FXUS64 KMOB 022328
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Most locations are at VFR levels to start the evening with
abundant high level clouds streaming into the area. However,
intermittent periods of MVFR cigs have developed across coastal AL
back into coastal MS. Periods of MVFR cigs are likely through the
night across the region. Given this and the abundant higher level
clouds, uncertainty in the development of IFR cigs and fog is
quite high. For now, we have not included any predominate IFR
conditions in the TAFs, but IFR cigs are possible in the 09-15z
time frame. The potential for IFR or lower vsbys with fog is lower
given the cloud cover. A return to predominate VFR conditions is
expected by mid Friday morning. Isolated to scattered diurnal
convection is possible along and west of I-65 Friday afternoon.
34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The forecast area remains between an upper ridge along the east
coast and troughing over much of the western CONUS. At the
surface, high pressure off the southeast coast will keep southerly
flow over the area through the next couple of days. Weak ripples
in the southwest flow aloft may provide enough forcing for
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. However these storms will
generally be short-lived given the influence of the ridge. The
better chances for this activity will be along our western and
northern zones. Similar conditions are anticipated for Friday,
though the coverage of storms may be a tad higher due to greater
available moisture as southerly flow persists. For both days,
activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Highs
will warm into the mid to upper 80s, though dewpoints will remain
in the 60s, keeping heat indices from climbing above the 90 degree
mark.

As for the overnight hours, the potential for fog will exist again
tonight, with the better chances closer to the coast. Ensemble
probabilities show less chance (~30%) for fog tonight, compared to
yesterday`s forecast, but given light winds and overnight lows
falling into the mid to upper 60s, I wouldn`t be surprised if
locally dense fog occurs. Due to a lower confidence, will hold off
on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory, but one may be needed before the
morning commute. /73

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Flow aloft will become more zonal by Saturday, with persistent
southerly flow allowing a steady stream of moisture across the
area. Several shortwaves will move through the zonal flow aloft
over the weekend and aid in the development of diurnally driven
convection both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. As is typically
the case, locally heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds will be
possible with any storm that does develop. Given the lack of any
large scale forcing, convection will remain disorganized and
relatively short-lived. Storms will diminish shortly after
sunset, with the loss of daytime heating.

As we head into the new work week, upper ridging will build into
the area, keeping the area rainfree through at least mid week.
With several days of continuous southerly flow, along with upper
level height rises, above normal conditions are anticipated for
much of next week. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with the hottest day of the period expected on
Wednesday. Given the moisture in place, heat indices will near the
triple digits each afternoon. Overnight lows will fall into the
mid to upper 60s, providing some relief to the hot conditions. /73

MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Patchy fog, dense in some locations, will be possible over bays,
sounds, and near shore waters on Friday. Any fog that does develop
will dissipate by the mid to late morning hours. Light onshore winds
will persist into the weekend as surface high pressure continues
to build across the area. Slightly higher winds (up to 15 knots
at times) will be possible each afternoon near the coast in
association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. /73

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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