409
AWUS01 KWNH 280816
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-281415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0193
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Areas affected...Much of Southwest and Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280815Z - 281415Z

SUMMARY...Sacttered areas of flash flooding will be likely through
the mid-morning hours across central and southwest MO as heavy
showers and thunderstorms impact the region.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a broken QLCS continuing to
impact the broader Lower MO Valley, with organized areas of
showers and thunderstorms continuing to produce heavy rainfall
rates of as much as 1 to 1.5 inches/hour.

Areas of cell-training are currently situated over west-central MO
and this is also in an area where stronger low-level convergence
remains focused along with a pool of instability characterized by
MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. An MCV is becoming apparent in
radar imagery over southeast KS and this will be advancing off to
the east-northeast over the next few hours into central and
southwest MO.

This energy coupled with a southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts
aiming into a west/east oriented outflow boundary/trough axis
across central MO should tend to maintain a formidable threat of
additional convection persisting through the early to mid-morning
hours with some additional concerns for cell-training. There
should tend to be a bit more of a progressive character to the
remaining QLCS activity over southern MO.

Additional rainfal totals of as much as 2 to 4 inches will be
possible with the heaviest rainfall likely in close proximity to
the aforementioned outflow boundary over central MO. Given the
sensitive/wet soil conditions and additional rains, there should
be at least some scattered areas of flash flooding going through
the early to mid-morning hours.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39969125 39179055 38539125 37839198 36829277
            36419337 36499421 37109483 38349451 39149382
            39929253