Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 152031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
331 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Light snow showers continue today as the storm system responsible
for yesterday`s blizzard was slow to exit the region. Areas to the
east can expect the most snow, while areas to the west will only see
light showers at times the rest of the afternoon. A few snow showers
will linger across western Wisconsin on Monday, but overall most of
the forecast area will by dry with some low stratus and northwest
winds of 10 to 20 mph. The warmest temperatures will be in western
Minnesota where lower 40s are possible, while the rest of the
forecast area will be in the 30s.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery was incredible in its depiction
of the synoptic cyclone across the central United States. The warm
conveyor belt was drawing up moisture from the warm waters of the
gulf. The areas of enhanced vorticity within the parent upper level
PV anomaly were the driving force behind the wrap-around snowfall
over Minnesota and Wisconsin. One area was responsible for the band
of heavy snow in eastern Minnesota through western Wisconsin. This
band could produce about 1 to 3 inches of snow over the rest of the
afternoon. Continued the current trend of the 03Z warning and
advisory expiration times for these locations, but trimmed off the
advisory to the southwest where the accumulating snow had ended.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The main time period of interest in the extended forecast is Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This storm has high-end potential to produce a
narrow band of a foot of snow on the northern side of the track.
However, uncertainties in the track are quite substantial considering
how compact the storm system is, especially in comparison to the
behemoth that just moved across the Upper Midwest this past weekend.
Pound for pound, this storm is equally as impressive.

A large reservoir of potential vorticity will quickly congeal into
a compact ball of positive vorticity as a an upper level wave takes
on a negative tile as it crosses the high plains and moves towards
the Upper Midwest. This will lead to cyclogenesis over the Cornbelt,
with an area of heavy, heavy precipitation northwest of the surface
low. The reason for the heavy precip is the tremendous forcing
associated with the positive vorticity advection by the thermal wind,
as well is the ageostrophic divergence from the sharp curvature of
the shortwave trough as it becomes amplified. Another impressive
feature of this storm is the fact the cold air can be traced to the
traced back to Lake Superior via the H850 temperature map and winds.

Models are in good agreement of at least an inch of QPF in the form
of snow, and the timing is favorable across the southwest with most
of it falling overnight. Meanwhile the snow will be falling during
the day as it approaches I-35 and heads east. The north/south
variability between the model is cause for concern. Do not have the
confidence to even consider a winter storm watch since the narrow
band of heavy snow could fall across northern Iowa, or it could fall
across central Minnesota. Once change made to forecast was to
significantly lower the potential for freezing rain. There should be
plenty of ice in areas where it is precipitating, so don`t
anticipate any issues with having snow. There could be some sleet
across southern MInnesota, but over all it looks like mainly a
rain/snow event.

Did not make any changes to the rest of the forecast as the blended
guidance seemed reasonable.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

MVFR/IFR conditions through the evening as snow showers move
across the region. The heaviest snow will be at KSTC KMSP KRNH and
KEAU. Northeast winds will continue today, but gradually shift to
become northwesterly on Monday. Forecast soundings show low
stratus, so have MVFR cigs for most locations except the western
sites through the duration of the TAF.

There should be another band of heavy snow developing this
afternoon. Visbys in Wisconsin are at 1/2 mile, so could see the
same at KMSP with snowfall rates of 3/4 in per hour possible.
Fortunately the mid April sun will keep the snowfall amounts lower
on clean paved surfaces. The heaviest snow will end around 00Z
this evening, but light snow showers

Tue...Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible late. Wind E 5-10 kts.
Wed...MVFR conditions likely in -RA/-SN. Wind NE 5-10 kts becoming
Thu...MVFR with IFR possible. Wind NW at 10 kts


WI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ014>016-

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ043-

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ045-052-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ058-



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