Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 162357
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
657 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs showed a few low
clouds across Minnesota and Wisconsin with northerly winds and
temperatures in the 30s. Overnight surface high pressure will build
across the region and that will allow skies to clear and temperatures
to cool into the teens at most locations. Tuesday will be partly
cloudy but should see a few higher clouds move in from the west.
Afternoon highs will be in the low 40s across the north, with
upper 30s to the south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

A potent short wave remains on track to bring a quick few hours of
heavy snow across northern Iowa into southern Minnesota and
southwest Wisconsin. The 16.12 NAM seems to diffuse with the forcing
and QPF, so trended more towards the GFS/ECMWF/GEM. A few locations
should pick up over an inch of QPF from this system, with much of it
falling as snow due to the intensity of the precipitation and colder
air wrapping in from the northeast into this system.

There are some timing differences, with the GFS being faster than
the GEM and moreso the ECMWF. For that reason did not make any
changes to the winter storm watch. Forecast soundings show peak
winds around 20 to 25 kts, so not anticipating significant blowing
snow.

Looking ahead, temepratures will moderate slowly. Overnight lows
will continue to drop below freezing each night the rest of the
week. If skies clear feel confident that the mid-April sun will
quickly eat away the snowpack and we should see highs in the 50s by
next weekend. The storm system for that time period continues to
track to the south so it shouldn`t impact the Upper Midwest. As for
the flooding concerns, the weather pattern remains fairly quiet
through next week with no significant storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Clouds from the weekend storm continue across western WI, but they
will slowly dissipate through 6z, remaining VFR as they do so. For
Tuesday, favored the NAM over the GFS/LAMP in maintaining mainly
SKC conditions. Think development of IFR cigs with the GFS/LAMP is
overdone given expectation of continued drying with N-NW winds
overnight.

KMSP...LAMP has MVFR cigs moving in by 15z, going IFR at 18z
Tuesday, but feel this is way to aggressive with combination of
dry air coming in tonight and subsidence expected tomorrow, so
continued trend started with 18z TAF in maintaining VFR conditions
through the day Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...MVFR with IFR/SN possible 12Z-21Z. Wind NE 5-10 kts bcmg NW.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through late
     Wednesday night for MNZ082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG


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