Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 270024
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
724 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.Updated for 00Z Aviation discussion...
Issued at 718 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a stationary front
straddling the international border while a warm front sits over
SD into NE and MO. Aloft, deep ridging emanating from the
southwestern CONUS is punching northward into the central Plains.
This ridge will continue to surge northward through the day
tomorrow, with the axis from central TX into central MN. While
there are some indications of isolated showers/t-storms possible
in far western MN around the northern periphery of the ridge
Sunday morning, the vast majority of the coverage area will remain
dry through tomorrow with continued strong warming. Lows tonight
will range through the 60s, with temps only dropping to around 70
in the Twin Cities. The strong warming for tomorrow will push
highs into 90s area-wide, with upper 90s possible over western and
southern MN along with inside the Twin Cities. With dewpoints
around 60 Sunday afternoon, this will push heat index values into
the 95-100 degree range for much of the area. As such, this
necessitates the issuance of a Heat Advisory for the Twin Cities
(Hennepin and Ramsey counties) for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Sunday night through Monday night...The aforementioned ridge axis
will maintain its influence over the area through Memorial Day,
though in a slightly weakened state. Additional clouds are
expected for Monday and there is the possibility of isolated
showers/t-storms late Monday afternoon into the evening for mainly
western MN. That said, the bulk of the area looks to remain dry
while high temperatures again are expected to hit the mid-90s for
much of the area. Similar heat index values are expected so it is
possible that another Heat Advisory may be needed for the Twin
Cities.

Tuesday through Saturday...A more unsettled pattern will commence
Tuesday and persist through Thursday due to the upper ridge
breaking down and moving away, being replaced by a large trough
from the western CONUS. The main low within the trough will shift
northeast into the Dakotas while its axis will sweep through the
central states. At the surface, a lumbering surface front will
approach from the west-northwest, slowly passing across the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. A deeper moisture plume combined
with the lack of upper level suppression will aid in the
development of scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms for the
mid-week period. Severe weather parameters are not impressive for
any one particular period so although an isolated strong storm
cannot be ruled out due to the continued modest instability,
nothing organized is expected. More tranquil conditions are
expected for the end of the week as the surface front pushes off
to the east but another weak low pressure center looks to arrive
from the Dakotas for next weekend which brings additional chances
for precipitation. Temperatures will go on a gradual cooling trend
through the week, with highs dropping to around 90 on Tuesday then
through the 80s as the workweek progresses, to the upper 70s by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 718 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions throughout with variable winds overnight becoming
southerly for Sunday.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout with variable winds overnight becoming
southerly for Sunday.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 10G20 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ060-062.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB



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