000
FXUS63 KMPX 211123
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mix of showers/storms likely tomorrow into Tuesday, resulting
  in accumulations within a couple tenths of an inch.

- Active pattern ahead, with two potential systems moving in at
  the end of this week and beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Good Sunday morning! It`ll be a nice, sunny day with the final
patch of mid-level clouds finally scurrying southeastward. High
temperatures will look to flirt with the 60s across much of
Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and winds will be similar to
yesterday with most seeing 10-15 MPH during the day. RH values
will drop below 25% for areas along and west of I-35, leading to
elevated fire weather conditions. Two factors that will help
limit concerns are lack of strong gusts and widespread greening
starting to occur.

MONDAY thru TUESDAY...The quiet weather does not last long, as
a system will look to bring a couple rounds of rain to the Great
Lakes region starting as early as tomorrow afternoon. Depending
on the timing of the low`s passage, tomorrow could be another
solid day with highs in the mid-upper 60s as relatively warmer,
moist air is pulled from the south. The latest suite of high res
guidance is just starting to help parse out details... 1) while
we do pull in moisture from the south, it doesn`t look to be
enough for stronger showers/storms to occur, and 2) instability
looks rather weak, which will inhibit the forcing needed for
stronger thunderstorms. That said, the area of general thunder
on the 06z Day 2 Convective Outlook from SPC highlights the
location well for where we are expecting afternoon
showers/storms to pop. Any storms that develop will move
northeast throughout the evening. A brief period of clouds
clearing out overnight could allow instability to build for a
few hours Tuesday morning, before another disturbance moves
through, bringing a second shot at weak showers/storms. Areas
further south and east will experience more daytime heating
ahead of the system, and will have the best chance for hearing
thunder. This is again highlighted well in the 0730z SPC Day 3
general thunder outlook. Total QPF has continued to trend down
as the models come into more agreement, with only a couple
tenths expected with this 2-day system. One final thing to note,
winds will pick up again both Monday and Tuesday, with gusts up
to 35 MPH possible at times.

TUESDAY NIGHT and BEYOND... Behind the fropa, temperatures will
look to drop near freezing again overnight Tuesday, with areas
further east seeing the highest potential for below 32F. Limited
sky cover will allow highs to rise into the mid-upper 50s.
Winds will also be the lightest we`ve seen in a while, with only
5-10 MPH expected during the day. This will be a much welcomed
form of noblesse oblige from the weather gods - in other words,
a good day to take advantage of some quiet weather squeezed into
a rather active period!

Going into the end of the week, temperatures will trend to near or
slightly above normal. The impressive looking system continues to
loom in most deterministic and ensemble guidance, further increasing
confidence in an active stretch of weather Thursday into Saturday.
This could be a precursor for yet another strong system early next
week, as a pronounced trough could build in the western CONUS
off the heels of the Thu-Sat system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Clear
skies today through this evening then high clouds slowly arrive
overnight into Sunday morning. WNW winds expected through the
day today, increasing to near 15G25kts then subsiding after dark
and backing to SW and S.

KMSP...Breezy winds today become a little stronger on Monday
after sunrise, with winds becoming S 15-20G30kts. Chances for
rain increase later on Monday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Chance MVFR/-SHRA, then VFR late. Wind NW 15-20G30-35kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
     Meeker-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-
     Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Hennepin-Ramsey.
WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC