429
FXUS63 KOAX 101111
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
611 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  Sunday through Wednesday. Current indications for the greatest
  precipitation chances of 40-60%, are expected Sunday into
  Monday. A strong storm or two is possible Sunday afternoon and
  again on Wednesday afternoon.

- Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
  for this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Clear skies and quiet winds leave little to supplement what is
likely to be a short forecast discussion. Surface analysis
reveals a large dome of high pressure from Nebraska stretching
to the GOMEX. Upper level analysis shows a subtropical jet
streaking from the west and a polar jet streak rounding a sharp
trof diving through the Canadian prairie provinces.

Comfortable spring weather continues through the weekend with
highs about 5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend. Clear
skies tonight will become partly sunny this afternoon with a
weak cold front traversing the CWA this afternoon. Expect
northwest winds to peak at 10-20 mph this afternoon. The first
half of the day will bring WAA which will be offset with CAA of
a similar magnitude later tonight. X + Y - Y = X. This
morning`s lows will be repeated tonight.

Saturday will be dry with temps climbing another few degrees
under mostly sunny skies. Sunday`s highs will push close to 80,
again, before a potent shortwave trof brings a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially after lunch. Chances of
30% along the SD state line push closer to 70% for counties
touching Kansas. NBM member`s mean SBCAPE of 500 J/Kg suggest
some strong convection is possible despite lackluster
kinematics. FWIW, the 00Z NAM pushes that cape over 1000 J/kg.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms continue into next week
with best chances waiting for Wednesday when a surface front
becomes hung up in the northern plains with enough instability
forecast east of that front for a chance of strong to severe
thunderstorms. With the front hanging in the vicinity, temps
will suffer a bit for Wednesday and Thursday, relegated to the
lower 70s and seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Light winds less than 12
knots becoming northwest and increasing to 12-24 knots 17-01z,
then below 12 knots beyond through the remainder of the TAF.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald