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000
FXUS64 KOHX 161146
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
646 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a strong upper-level low over
eastern CO. As this system tracks northeast into the Great Plains
today, cloud cover will increase over our area. Despite this,
temperatures should still warm nicely with highs forecast to reach
into the mid-80`s once again. At this time, there are some light
showers over west TN approaching, but this light rain should quickly
clear out by mid-morning, leaving us dry for most of the day.
However, by late this evening, a line of showers and thunderstorms
will be approaching from the west. Latest model guidance holds off
on bringing this into western Middle TN until around midnight. As
these storms cross the Tennessee River, they should rapidly
weaken with little to no CAPE across Middle TN. Thus, the threat
for strong to severe storms tonight is very low.

On Wednesday, the aforementioned low passes well to our north with
its center tracking northeast over Iowa and Minnesota. With this
track so far north, so is the better forcing for severe weather.
However, there is a conditional threat for severe weather across
Middle TN Wednesday afternoon. As Tuesday night`s showers clear
the area by mid-Wednesday morning, instability should rebound
with MLCAPE values ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings
also show steep mid-level lapse rates ranging from 7-9 C/km.
But these forecast soundings also show a large capping inversion
that looks to be slow to erode. If the cap can break and storms
are able to develop, then they will do so in an environment that
should be supportive of large hail and damaging winds. But most
model guidance actually keeps Middle TN clear Wednesday
afternoon. So it`s also possible we get nothing on Wednesday. Any
severe weather risk looks to diminish after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A brief break in the rain is expected Wednesday night and Thursday
morning, however, a large upper-level low setting up over southern
Canada and a series of embedded shortwaves will keep an active
pattern continuing through the weekend. Off-and-on showers with a
few thunderstorms will be possible each day Thursday through
Sunday, and temperatures will gradually cool through the weekend.
Can`t rule out a stray strong thunderstorm on Thursday, but CAPE
and shear values look too weak for a widespread severe threat. Dry
weather returns next Monday, but a look out into the extended
hints that it might not last that long.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

With continued strengthening of low level atmospheric pressure
gradient influences, of particular concern to general aviation
interest, is LLWS at top of 2 Kft layer up to 45kts 17/03Z-17/09Z
CKV/BNA/MQY. With 2-3 hrs only, and not high confidence on
terminal development or movement across, just went with VCTS.
Best confidence in tstm development potential CKV and thus went
with best chance of tstm occurrence during two hr interval. Sfc
sustained winds becoming around 10 kts with gusts up to 25kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  67  81  63 /  10  60  40  30
Clarksville    85  66  82  61 /  10  80  30  20
Crossville     81  62  73  59 /  20  30  40  30
Columbia       84  65  79  62 /   0  60  40  30
Cookeville     83  64  75  61 /  20  40  50  30
Jamestown      83  62  76  58 /  20  40  40  40
Lawrenceburg   84  64  77  62 /   0  50  50  20
Murfreesboro   87  65  79  62 /  10  50  50  30
Waverly        86  66  82  61 /  10  70  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....JB Wright