Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270727
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
227 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures are expected again tonight. A brief,
  light freeze is possible over mainly the Ozark Foothills of
  southeast Missouri and much of southern Illinois.

- A warming trend is expected to begin Thursday, with entire
  region seeing well above normal temperatures, with highs from
  the middle 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday through Monday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Saturday evening
  and again Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, especially for
  the northern half of the area.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
  accompany a cold frontal passage at some point Monday into
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Surface high pressure will keep our region dry through Friday
night. The high will move overhead tonight, and with clear
skies and light to calm winds, temperatures will drop 7 to 10
degrees below normal into the 30 to 35 degree range. The coldest
temperatures will be across southern Illinois and portions of
southeast Missouri, resulting in a light freeze for a few hours.

The high will move off to our southeast, and winds across the
area will shift to the southwest Thursday. A warming trend will
begin Thursday and continue into the weekend. Temperatures will
return to seasonable readings Thursday and Thursday night. By
Saturday through Monday, high temperatures will be around 15
degrees above normal, with overnight lows around 20 degrees
above normal.

By Friday night into Saturday, models shows a frontal boundary
setting up north of our region. The model blend now keeps any
precipitation north of our counties through Saturday, then the
front sinks far enough south to give northern and eastern
portions of the PAH forecast area small chances of showers and
possibly a storm or two Saturday evening. The NBM brings better
chances into our region Sunday afternoon and night, and
especially Monday into Tuesday as the surface low associated
with the frontal boundary moves east out of the Central Plains
Sunday night, dragging a cold front toward then through our
area Monday into Tuesday. The NBM currently gives our best
chances Monday afternoon into Monday evening with likely PoPs.
Models have varied quite a bit with timing/location of both of
the associated fronts, so confidence in chances over the
weekend and the timing of the highest chances early next week
is moderate at best. However, confidence is high in good
chances of showers and storms sometime in the early work week
time frame.

Based on moisture availability and instability in place early
next week ahead of the cold front, there is some potential for
some stronger storms. But again, overall timing of the
parameters coming together is not too high at this point, so
this will just be something to watch in subsequent models runs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Westerly winds are slowly settling down across the area. A
3000-3500 ft overcast deck is expected to persist for another
few hours over parts of SEMO and southern IL but prevailing VFR
conditions are anticipated at the TAF sites. VFR conditions are
anticipated at all sites through the day and early evening
Wednesday with a light north wind as high pressure settles
in over the area.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...JGG


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