885
FXUS61 KPBZ 080520
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
120 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms are expected in Ohio tonight with showers
and isolated severe thunderstorms spreading across the rest of
the area late tonight. More showers and thunderstorms are
expected early Thursday. Cooler and unsettled weather is
expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Severe potential persist through the early morning.
- All modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging wind,
  tornadoes, and flooding) are possible with these storms.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Current conditions across the area highlight lingering MU CAPE
is still roughly around 1000 J/Kg but the overall shear is still
substantial enough for thunderstorm development for tornado
development as well as damaging winds. These cells are still
expected to continue to move east into the PA counties and the
OH counties will need to be dropped soon. Further extension
into PA is probable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Brief ridging will allow for dry weather with sunshine on
  Wednesday.
- Additional storms are possible late Wednesday night into early
  Thursday morning, but highest severe probabilities are well
  south of the forecast area.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Weak ridging brings quiet weather on Wednesday into Wednesday
night. However another trough with 50 to 70 meter height falls
pushes a low pressure area up Ohio Valley with a surge of warm
advection showers and thunderstorms. While these could be
severe, odds favor the strong instability to be well south of
forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Ensembles suggest a wet pattern into the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s
  this weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Strong height falls on Friday usher in a cooler pattern with a
long wave trough position in the east. Showers are likely on a
daily basis into the weekend but especially on Saturday as a 100
meter height fall center pushes across Ohio in the afternoon.

Temperatures Friday through Sunday will be 5-10 degrees below
the seasonal normal of about 70 this time of year.

Some moderation of temperatures is likely Monday and Tuesday as
heights rise and flow turns from northwest to more westerly,
though there is a possibility of another trough dropping over
the northeast on Tuesday keeping things a bit cooler than
currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are in place at the start of the TAF period. Main
concern is convection that will move through during the late
evening/early overnight period as shear and instability
increases ahead of a prefrontal trough. Have timed the period of
greatest concern using two-hour TEMPO groups through the TAF
sites...02-04Z at ZZV, 04-06Z at FKL/HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI, 05-07Z at
MGW/LBE, and 06-08Z at DUJ. ZZV is under the gun for the
strongest storms, and hit the visibility and wind possibilities
hardest here, with 45 knot gusts possible as well as some hail.
Storms are expected to weaken as they progress into western
PA/northern WV, and thus have slowly decreasing visibility
impact with time. Behind the main line, MVFR ceilings will
linger for several hours. Weak ridging building into the region
will bring VFR countdowns back to the region by late morning on
Wednesday.

.Outlook...
Restrictions with showers and storms are likely early Thursday
through Friday with crossing low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...CL