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000
FXUS65 KPUB 220459
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1059 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the I-25 corridor,
  Fremont County, and the San Luis Valley tomorrow.

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible for the San
  Luis Valley on Tuesday with Critical Fire Weather concerns
  increasing across most of southern CO through late week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in
  and near the SE mts Tuesday and again late week with the next
  storm system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Currently...

Satellite imagery shows the very last of this morning`s upslope
cloudiness dissipating over El Paso and Fremont counties as of 2pm,
with mostly clear skies elsewhere across the district. Temperatures
have risen into the 50s across areas that broke out of the clouds
earliest. Areas that are just now seeing sunshine are still in the
30s. Winds are mostly light this afternoon. Some cumulus development
can be seen over our southern mountains, though no returns are
evident on radar yet.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Models bring increasing westerly flow aloft across the region
tonight and tomorrow as a low traverses the southern Canadian border
throughout Monday. This pattern will bring gusty westerly gap flow
winds to portions of Fremont, El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano, and western
Las Animas counties, along with gusty west winds to the San Luis
Valley tomorrow as well. Gusts to 25 mph are expected across these
areas, and gusts to 30 mph will be possible in areas where westerly
gap flow is favored, especially for the southern ranges of Fort
Carson and northern Pueblo county. Relative humidities in the low
teens will be possible as well. Downsloping winds will help us to
warm to above normal temperatures tomorrow. Highs in the mid to
upper 80s will be possible across much of the plains, with mid to
upper 70s over the Palmer Divide, the Raton Mesa, and mountain
valleys. A few very isolated showers will be possible over the high
country tomorrow afternoon, mainly over the northern Sangres. A cold
front will pass to our north throughout the day, which could
potentially bring a shower or two towards the Palmer Divide late in
the forecast period, though the front itself is not expected to back
into our plains until after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Cold front moves through the eastern plains Monday night/early
Tuesday morning which will knock temperatures back across the plains
around 10-15 degrees and bring some briefly gusty winds.  Could be a
ribbon of stratus form along the eastern slopes of the SE mountains
Tues AM but coverage doesn`t look as great as what occurred with the
previous frontal passage. This should allow temperatures to warm
above climo on Tuesday in spite of an overall cool down from the day
before. Upslope flow and low level moisture will bring a round of
showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and adjacent plains as
weak shortwave energy rides through the upper ridge in the
afternoon. But precipitation looks spotty overall with most areas
staying dry. Still looks like a potential marginal critical fire
weather day for the San Luis Valley Tuesday afternoon, but coverage
and magnitude is lower than Monday`s and will hold off on a Fire
Weather Watch given the more marginal extent of this event.

Southwest flow increases for mid to late week though latest runs
have slowed down the eastward progression of the upper low into the
western U.S. for Wednesday.  The cooler moist airmass across the
plains hangs in little longer on Wednesday, and delays the warm up
across the plains as a result. Critical fire weather conditions may
return to our interior valleys and southern I-25 corridor as the lee
trough redevelops to the south of KPUB. Otherwise, temperatures will
continue to warm.

Critical fire weather conditions ramp up again for late week as the
next system enters southern CA and opens up and lifts out across CO
during the Thursday night/early Friday time frame.  Southerly return
flow/low level jet will increase dew points across the plains Wed
night and depending on the timing of this ejecting system, we could
have some dry line thunderstorms near our eastern border Thursday
afternoon. GFS is on the faster side of the deterministic and
ensemble runs with the eastward progression of this system which
would push any activity eastward into KS. Will need to monitor the
trends in this timing but for now forecast is mostly dry for the
southeast plains. West of the dry line...fire weather conditions
will expand across southern portions of the southeast plains.

System wraps up across NE CO by Fri AM with the potential for some
wrap around showers/tstorms across northeast sections of the area.
Otherwise, some mountain snow showers will possible with the some
light to moderate accumulations in the NW orographically favored
central mountains.  The pattern remains active into next weekend as
another system drops in from the northwest and bringing another
round of showers and thunderstorms for Sat/Sun. It too seems to
maintain a more northern track across CO but there is more
variability among the extended models, so will need to monitor
trends closely. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Higher decks will
increase during the day tomorrow. Winds will initially be more
diurnally influenced through the early morning but then become
synoptically influenced and gusty out of the SW-WSW at all terminals
by the afternoon tomorrow. These winds will turn to a more NW`ly
direction by later in the evening tomorrow at all terminals and then
continue to weaken towards the end of the forecast period.
-Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ222-224-
227>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...STEWARD