000
FXUS62 KRAH 262302
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the
weekend. Flow will turn swly early next week as the the western
ridge of the sfc high extends inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 243 PM Thursday...

Light enely flow continues this afternoon as high pressure extends
down into our area. Further southwest, a warm front draped across
the TN valley continues to generate clouds and light rain mostly
over the southern Appalachians. Elevated radar echoes have been
observed trickling into our southern Piedmont, but none has reached
the sfc. We should continue to stay dry, however some very light
patchy rain may reach the sfc in the Triad/northern Piedmont later
tonight. Overall though, expecting mostly dry conditions. Overnight
lows will dip into the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Friday...

As the upper level ridge persists across the Mid-Atlantic region,
dry weather is expected to continue over the short term period. At
the surface, high pressure  off the north Mid-Atlantic coast
Saturday morning will continue to influence easterly winds on
Saturday. By late Saturday night early Sunday the high will slide
south and winds over the region will be come southerly. Temperatures
Saturday will be a few degrees below average with highs ranging from
the upper 60s along the north to mid 70s along the south. With cloud
coverage continuing through the night, lows will be above average
ranging from mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...

Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper
ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US on Sunday and
Monday. At the surface, western Atlantic high pressure will weaken
and shift south from off the NC coast on Sunday to off the GA/SC
coast by Monday, shifting the surface flow across our region to a
S/SW direction. This will bring mostly sunny skies and very warm
temperatures, with highs increasing from upper-70s to lower-80s on
Sunday to mid-to-upper-80s on Monday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to
around 60. While these temperatures won`t break any records, they
are still around 5-10 degrees above normal.

Clouds will increase on Tuesday as the ridge gets replaced by a
shortwave trough approaching from the west that reaches central NC
by Tuesday evening/night and interacts with a lee surface trough in
place. However, the synoptic cold front doesn`t look to make it to
central NC. Also the shortwave looks fairly weak and the time of day
of its passage looks too late for the most favorable daytime heating
for convection. Still, instability will be high enough that a few
storms are possible, especially over the western Piedmont.

Can`t rule out a bit more diurnal convection on Wednesday and
Thursday, but with a lack of forcing and another mid/upper ridge
moving overhead, coverage should be very isolated at best. The next
northern stream trough looks to dive down into the Upper Midwest on
Friday, as a cold front approaches. This will bring potential for
better coverage of showers and storms. High temperatures will
continue to be very warm, in the mid-to-upper-80s, through the
workweek. Isolated spots in the south could even reach 90. Lows will
be in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM Friday...

With the exception for a period of MVFR ceilings at KINT and KGSO
between 12 to 15z, expect predominately VFR conditions with broken
to occasionally overcast ceilings between 5-10kft through the
forecast period.  Easterly winds of 5-10 kts will continue
overnight, gradually turning toward the SELY Saturday. -CBL


Outlook: Additional sub-VFR ceilings are possible early Sunday
morning, with the best chance again at KINT and KGSO. Diurnal
showers and scattered storms may be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
-Luchetti

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Luchetti/Green
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CBL/Luchetti