Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 232323
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
723 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry this afternoon with clouds clearing west to east. High
pressure brings dry weather Sunday through Monday. Next system
brings rain for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 520 PM Saturday...

Temperatures struggled to rise to their anticipated highs this
afternoon at the result of lingering stratus hugging the area.
Brought hourly temps down a few degrees to account for current
conditions and lowered overnight readings as a result of these
cooler observations. The rest of the forecast remains on track
this evening.

As of 200 PM Saturday...

Clouds are eroding from the west, generally as expected, though
the pace of this erosion the rest of the day is a bit uncertain.
The breaking up of clouds should reach the Charleston Metro and
CLarksburg by or before sunset, but the mountains likely hang on
to at least some broken or overcast cloud cover into the night.
Aside from some light rain in the east, occasionally mixed with
a bit of snow at higher elevations, precip has largely cleared
the area and should continue to wind down the rest of the
afternoon. Winds will remain brisk overall, from the northwest
and north, with gusts of 15-25 mph expected into the evening.
The winds look to calm down for most of the area overnight, but
could remain gusty over the higher ridges of the northern
mountains into Sunday morning before high pressure building in
puts the kibosh on the winds. Sunday should be sunny, dry, and
calm.

After a fairly raw day today with the cold and breezy
conditions, we can expect a cold night tonight, with lows in
the 20s for most. Wind chills will bottom out in the single
digits above zero for the higher northern ridges, with teens to
low 20s wind chills expected in the lowlands. After that,
Sunday`s sunny skies will showcase the increasing power of the
higher sun angle, with highs into the 50s for the lower
elevations and 40s in the mountains. It`ll still be a few
degrees below normal for late March for most locations, but
will feel nice with the expected sunny and calm weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Saturday...

By Monday, the surface high shifts eastward, with warmer
temperatures, and gusty winds taking hold ahead of an approaching
system. RH values on Monday will once again dip into the 20s,
possibly even the teens in spots, and will be looking at the
potential for heightened fire weather concerns once again across the
area, particularly after a day of drying on Sunday. Depending on how
well fuels are able to dry out, some mountainous locations and
perhaps SE downslope areas may be most susceptible to fire weather
concerns. Will plan to add a mention in the HWO, and think at least
an sps may be warranted for some areas on Monday depending on how
conditions shape up. Precipitation returns to the area later Tuesday
into Wednesday as another surface low and upper shortwave lifts
northeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening southerly winds
associated with the system should allow for decent moisture
transport into the area, and although system overall looks to be
rather quick hitting, it will provide a widespread wetting rain.
There could even be a rumble of thunder during the period,
particularly depending on timing of system and front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1204 PM Saturday...

Frontal boundary associated with the system should be just east of
the mountains by late Wednesday night or early Thursday. Beyond
Thursday, a southern stream system looks to take hold and gradually
move northeast along the east coast. Moisture should largely stay
out of our CWA with this feature, but there is some indication that
moisture could affect southern/eastern zones. Otherwise, mainly dry
conditions until the weekend when there is the potential for a quick
hitting shortwave to affect the area. Details remain uncertain, but
any moisture/precipitation associated with this feature should be
light and quick hitting.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 723 PM Saturday...

Clouds continue to clear out at a sluggish pace this evening
from west to east, with lowland terminals now returning to VFR
thresholds. Mountains will hold onto to sub-VFR ceilings for a
few more hours before branching out to round out the weekend on
Sunday. High pressure will yield mostly clear skies once
lingering stratus erodes off the higher terrain.

Winds remain breezy out of the northwest this evening between
15-20kts in most recent observations. Pressure gradient winds
should slacken overnight and become lighter on Sunday in
response to the aforementioned high. Surface flow begins to veer
out of the southeast Sunday evening along the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement of ceilings may vary
from forecast tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions may occur in any areas of heavier rain Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK


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