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000
FXUS61 KRNK 231759
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
159 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area through the evening. A cold
front crosses our region on Wednesday with scattered showers
mainly across the mountains. Temperatures remain a few degrees
either side of normal through the week with high pressure
returning behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Abundant sunshine continues through the evening. Should still
see highs in the upper 60s and low 70s by later this afternoon
with breezy southwest winds.

Clouds still expected to move into the region tonight, along
with increasing moisture, ahead of the next cold front expected
to arrive Wednesday morning. Will have showers approaching the
southeast West Virginia counties after midnight and then showers
into the New River and Roanoke Valleys by daybreak.

Moisture is very limited with this front and some locations may
not see any rain at all. Highest rainfall amounts will be west
of the Blue Ridge, generally around 0.25" or less.

Temperatures a few degrees cooler tomorrow, but will be windier
with northwest winds gusting into the 20mph range. The front
clears the area by tomorrow evening and gradual clearing will
occur as the day progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather on Thursday.

2) A chance of showers exists in the mountains by late Friday.


Wednesday night into Thursday high pressure will build
southeastward from the Great Lakes. With mostly clear skies in
the night and calm winds very early Thursday morning, radiative
cooling will be efficient, leading to cool temps Thursday
morning in the mid 30s west of the Blue Ridge. Some patchy
frost is possible for western Greenbrier County of West Virginia
where temperatures fall close to the freezing mark by Thursday
morning. Dry weather will persist through Thursday and Thursday
night. A wedge will set up on Friday with a broad high over New
England and the eastern Great Lakes. A warm front will nudge
northward around the western periphery of the wedge during
Friday afternoon, which could bring a slight chance of showers
for the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend during the weekend.

2) Mostly dry weekend

High pressure will slowly head offshore during Saturday, while a
warm front heads north of the Mid Atlantic. Only a low chance of
showers and thunderstorms is possible for the mountains by
Saturday afternoon. A strong ridge and southerly flow late
Saturday through Monday will allow a warming trend so that it
feels more like late April. The next chance of precip will be
closer to Tuesday or Wednesday as we track a front moving east
across the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue into the evening and early
overnight hours. Clouds will increase overnight and will lower
with pockets of MVFR cigs and some rainshowers in the mountains.
MVFR lingers across the mountains through daybreak tomorrow.
VFR with some 4kt to 5kft cigs east of the mountains, gradually
improving towards the end of the valid TAF period.

Winds today will remain west/southwest, gusting into the 20kt
range at times, especially across the higher elevations. Winds
decrease some tonight, still from the southwest.

Cold front crosses the area tomorrow and winds will shift to the
northwest, gusty at times in the 20kt range.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

Thursday looks dry and VFR.

A warm front approaches Friday, and although VFR conditions
remain, but could start to see sub-VFR toward LWB/BLF late
Friday into Saturday. -SHRA looks unlikely outside of sprinkles
during this time for BLF.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/SH
SHORT TERM...PW/VFJ
LONG TERM...PW/VFJ
AVIATION...BMG