Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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137 FXUS64 KSHV 060514 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1214 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this time. /44/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 The decaying thunderstorm complex moving from west to the east across the Four State Region this morning temporarily stabilized the airmass across a majority of the coverage area and there is currently little in the way of convection (although showers and storms continue to our north, east, and south). There still is a good chance that at least isolated showers and storms will get going later this afternoon through early this evening as the atmosphere continues to recover and destabilize with temperatures getting into the upper 70s and lower 80s. At least a few strong storms producing small hail, frequent lightning, brief gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be possible given marginal wind shear and respectable instability, but the potential for severe thunderstorms remains low / marginal. Convection should dwindle later this evening due to the lack of synoptic lift and fading instability, leaving a warmer than average and somewhat muggy night. Lows should generally be in the lower to mid 60s with low clouds and patchy fog building very late tonight and then breaking up several hours after sunrise tomorrow morning. Widespread dense fog is not very likely given the setup and latest short term model guidance. The southern edge of a vigorous upper level disturbance is still expected to pass through the Southern Plains and Middle MS Valley tomorrow, likely sparking an outbreak of severe thunderstorms to the NW of our region late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. The influx of additional deep Gulf moisture on building southerly flow tomorrow afternoon should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our coverage area, although the ingredients for severe thunderstorm production will be much less than will be the case to our NW. That said, strong storms will be possible and a stray severe storm cannot be ruled out in any areas. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorm extending into locations NW of the I-30 corridor and this is mainly to cover the potential for severe storms along and north of the Red River congealing into a squall line that could effect those areas tomorrow night. All severe weather hazards will be possible with that potential squall line in those areas, but it is important to emphasize the potential for significant severe weather is definitely concentrated to the NW and west of those areas. Otherwise, expect high temperatures tomorrow in the lower to mid 80s with lows tomorrow night in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /50/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 The main concern in the long range period of the forecast (Tuesday into next weekend) is the potential for severe storms and heavy rainfall, mainly Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night - and again Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Also of some concern is oppressive (for the time of year) heat Tuesday through Thursday. During this latter period, many locations at least along and south of I-20 will likely have temperatures peak in the range of 90 to 93 degrees with peak heat index values pushing the triple digits at least briefly. This kind of heat is very typical of the summer, but could be hazardous for some folks given our bodies will not yet have had a chance yet to acclimatize. As alluded to above, the heat will be building on Tuesday and will contribute to moderate to high atmospheric instability. The Storm Prediction Center is advertising at least some risk of severe storms north of I-20 on Tuesday due to the outside potential for vigorous convection to fire up on a boundary lingering from the Monday night convection. However, NWP and blended model guidance is less than bullish about thunderstorm chances in these areas those days and the official forecast has rain chances only ranging from 10 to 20 percent. We will have to continue to monitor trends for Tuesday, but at this point the larger threat from storms looks to come Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. On those days, a series of disturbances coming through in fast westerlies aloft gradually should push a cold front south through the area over the course of 24 to 36 hours. The synoptic lift from these disturbances, plus lift from the front, should promote the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in an environment of at least moderate instability and wind shear. One to three inches of rainfall (with isolated higher amounts) will be possible in at least central and northern zones over this period. Given the saturated nature of the ground, this sort of rainfall possible in a short time period could cause flooding issues. Once the front clears the area to the south by early Friday, confidence in the weather remaining quiet for more than a few days is not great. While the passage of the front should bring temperatures back to slightly below or near normal, there are hints at another large incoming disturbance to potentially bring thunderstorms back into the forecast before the coming weekend is totally done. There are some NWP discrepancies this far out in the forecast, but the early next week time period will be something to watch. /50/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions currently prevailing but expect a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop across our airspace during the predawn hours with those ceilings gradually giving way to low VFR ceilings by late morning into the afternoon hours. Also kept VCTS during the afternoon and early evening hours across most terminals given the diurnally driven convective coverage expected today. Look for stronger SSE winds today, especially across our western terminal locations with sustained winds near 10-12kts with gusts upwards of 20kts expected at the TYR terminal. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 89 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 MLU 71 89 72 91 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 67 84 67 85 / 50 10 20 40 TXK 71 88 71 90 / 30 10 20 40 ELD 68 88 69 90 / 20 10 10 20 TYR 72 87 72 88 / 10 0 10 20 GGG 72 88 72 90 / 10 0 10 20 LFK 72 90 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...13