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000
FXUS64 KSJT 141946
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
246 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...Severe storms possible Monday afternoon and Monday night...

Upper low will be moving into Colorado Sunday afternoon, with
strong southwest flow across West Central Texas. A dryline will be
situated Monday afternoon across the Eastern Permian Basin, with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off it in the
afternoon, moving east into West Central Texas (mainly 4 PM and
later) and continuing into the evening hours in West Central
Texas. There may be second batch of storms develop towards
midnight, as the surface trough moves through, bringing southwest
to west winds. With GFS MUCAPES up to 2000 J/KG and 0-6 bulk
shears of 50-60 KTS severe storms possible, with large hail and
damaging winds possible late afternoon and evening. An isolated
tornado possible, mainly in the Big Country. SPC has slight risk
of severe storms from the Concho Valley into the Big Country,
with an enhanced risk in Haskell and Throckmorton counties.

Warm conditions otherwise continue Monday with south winds
bringing highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Mild tonight
with lows in the mid 60s, and slightly cooler Monday night with
lows ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s (cooler in western
zones).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The upper low will lift northeast of the area on Tuesday, with a
Pacific cold front moving through during the day. The front will
bring breezy west winds and drier air into the region, with
afternoon highs mainly in the upper 80s. Dry and unseasonably warm
weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, as zonal flow aloft
develops across the Southern Plains. A strong 850 MB thermal ridge
will develop, resulting in above normal temperatures both days,
with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

A change in the weather pattern is expected late next week into
the weekend, with cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation
chances. A cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday
night into Friday, with an overrunning situation developing into
the weekend. This pattern will support a low to medium chance for
showers and thunderstorms from Friday through next weekend, along
with considerably cooler temperatures. Forecast highs for Saturday
are mainly in the 70s, with highs Sunday in the 60s and overnight
lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

MVFR stratus returns late tonight and early Monday morning across
all the terminals except KABI. South wind gusts up to 21 KTS
develop mid morning across most of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  89  59  87 /   0  30  50   0
San Angelo  66  93  60  88 /   0  20  40   0
Junction    66  91  66  93 /   0   0  20   0
Brownwood   65  85  64  87 /   0  10  50   0
Sweetwater  67  90  58  86 /   0  30  40   0
Ozona       65  89  59  87 /   0  10  30   0
Brady       66  87  67  88 /   0  10  40   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04