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000
FXUS64 KSJT 132335
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
635 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue across West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. Gusty south winds of 15 to 25 mph
will to 5 to 15 mph this evening. A low level jet of 30 to 40
knots is forecast to develop late this evening, which may result
in an increase in winds to 15 to 20 mph, especially in the higher
elevations across the forecast area. Expect overnight lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Stratus is forecast to overspread the
southern half of the area toward daybreak, with skies quickly
clearing by late morning or early afternoon. On Sunday, winds will
be quite a bit lighter than what we`ve experienced the last
couple of days, with south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph,
with higher gusts. NBM winds looked a bit too light, so I did bump
them up slightly. Highs on Sunday will be hot, with most
locations topping

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...Marginal to slight risk of severe weather Monday into Monday
night...

500mb low/trough across the western United States Sunday night
will move eastward across the Rockies Monday. Low to mid level
moisture will increase ahead of this feature across northwest
Texas Monday into Mon night. This will provide a chance of showers
and thunderstorms...some possibly severe...Mon afternoon into Mon
evening across portions of the CWA. Latest SPC outlook has a
marginal to slight risk of severe weather across most of the CWA
with an enhanced risk of severe weather across extreme northern
portions of the CWA Monday into Mon night. The main threats for
severe weather are mainly large to very large hail and damaging
winds. In addition...there is a chance of significant severe
weather across portions of the Big Country extending southward
into western portions of the Concho Valley. The question is where
convection will initiate Monday into Mon night as the dryline
across northwest Texas may be the initial focus for thunderstorms
to develop before a Pacific cold front moves through the area Mon
night. The front will allow moisture to pool along and ahead of
the boundary and that may provide better rain chances especially
across the southern and eastern portions of the CWA Mon night.
Drier air will filter into west central TX in the wake of the cold
front on Tuesday. This will provide elevated fire weather
conditions across the area especially across the western portions
of the CWA. A somewhat zonal flow will develop across the southern
tier of the country Wednesday but a weak shortwave trough is
progged to move across northwest TX Thursday providing a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms Thurs afternoon into Thurs
evening...mainly across eastern and southern portions of the CWA.
Another cold front is expected to move through the area Thurs
night through Fri morning but this front will provide cooler
temperatures Friday into Saturday. In addition...elevated
convection is progged to develop Friday into Fri night and
continue into Saturday...as both the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly
good agreement with a wet pattern developing towards the end of
the week into the weekend with low to mid level moisture across
south and central Texas lifting northward as a couple of shortwave
troughs move into west Texas towards the end of the forecast

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Current VFR conditions at all sites with just some upper level
clouds moving across, and gusty south winds. Expect conditions to
remain VFR through 06Z tonight with low clouds coming back in
around 09Z or later. Model data continues to show at least MVFR
ceilings developing at KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD by 12Z Sunday morning,
with the potential for IFR ceilings, so have kept the mention of
IFR in the forecasts for early Sunday morning as well. Expect low
clouds to mix out by 16Z or 17Z as southwesterly, dry winds move
in. Winds tomorrow are expected to be south/southwest around 10
knots, with gusts to around 20 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  92  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  60  94  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    62  93  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   59  88  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  62  93  65  89 /   0   0   0  20
Ozona       59  90  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       62  90  65  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...20