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000
FXUS64 KSJT 141740
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1240 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Well above normal temperatures will continue today and into Monday
across across West Central Texas, with temperatures today reaching
into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Breezy south to southwesterly winds
will around 10 to 20 mph will linger through this evening before
becoming light and variable overnight. Overnight lows are
expected to only drop into the low to mid 60s tonight, mainly due
to the constant influx of warm southerly winds, and some
lingering cloud cover early this morning and again later tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday
Night...

The weather gets more active early next week with severe weather
possible late Monday afternoon and night. A strong upper level
disturbance, with a negative tilt/strong mid level jet streak, will
rotate out to the northeast across the Southern and Central Plains
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. At the surface, will see a spring
like pattern across the Southern Plains 12Z Monday with southerly
flow(wind gusts 35 to 40 mph Monday evening) across our area to the
east of a dryline over west Texas. The combination of moderate
instability, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s and dryline
moving east will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing during the late afternoon and evening, as a Pacific
cold front overtakes dryline and upper level dynamics increase. A
few storms may be severe with strong vertical wind shear in the
area. A few supercells possible during initial development and
convection developing into a line of storms during Monday evening
and overnight across much of the area. The main hazards will be
very large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Going
with a low to medium chance of rain, with rainfall amounts
remaining below 1 inch.

For Tuesday, the storm system exits the area with breezy conditions
and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Looks like very warm days
Wednesday and Thursday as 850 MB thermal ridge will be over our
area. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The weather get
more unsettled by Thursday through Saturday as cold front moves
south Thursday night and overrunning develops across the area next
weekend. Going with low to medium chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Also, cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday with
highs in the 60s and 70s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

MVFR stratus returns late tonight and early Monday morning across
all the terminals except KABI. South wind gusts up to 21 KTS
develop mid morning across most of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     92  67  89  60 /   0   0  30  50
San Angelo  93  66  92  61 /   0   0  20  40
Junction    93  65  90  66 /   0   0   0  20
Brownwood   88  64  86  64 /   0   0  10  50
Sweetwater  92  67  88  58 /   0   0  30  40
Ozona       90  65  88  59 /   0   0  10  30
Brady       88  66  87  67 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...04