477
FXUS64 KSJT 070506
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1206 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Our forecast area should be free of thunderstorms late this
afternoon and again late Tuesday afternoon, but is something we will
have to monitor for some of our far eastern/southeastern counties.

A dryline was mixing east toward our western border counties this
afternoon, and may get as far east as the western Big Country,
western Concho Valley and western Crockett County by 5-6 PM. Cloud
cover remains over our Heartland and Northwest Hill Country counties
while skies have cleared over western and northern parts of our area.
The upper support associated with a potent, negatively tilted upper
trough is well north of our area this afternoon, and the trough is
lifting northeast into the central/northern High Plains. The airmass
ahead of the dryline is strongly unstable with CAPE values of 3000-
4000 J/kg. We are continuing with slight chance PoPs in our far
eastern counties (mainly east of a Throckmorton to Mason line) late
this afternoon and early evening. While thunderstorm development
looks unlikely, a conditional threat exists for localized very large
hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado.

Drier low-level air will infiltrate our northern and central
counties, and the Northern Edwards Plateau late tonight and Tuesday
morning. Clear skies are expected for most of our area. Our
southeastern counties will have redevelopment of low clouds late
tonight and early Tuesday morning, before breaking up around mid-
morning. Some patchy fog may also develop by early Tuesday morning
in a more moist boundary layer and light winds south of an Eldorado
to San Saba line. Expect overnight lows will range from the mid to
upper 50s in the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley, to mid to
upper 60s in our southeastern counties.

Very warm to hot temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with partly
cloudy skies in our southeastern counties and mostly sunny skies
over the rest of the area. Highs will range from the mid to upper
80s in some of our northern and eastern counties, to the lower to
mid 90s in the Concho Valley and southern parts of our area. One
of the models indicates a potential for isolated shower/thunder
storm development in the far southeastern part of our area late
Tuesday afternoon. With the potential looking rather low, not
including any mentionable PoPs at this time. A broad upper
low/trough will be over the northern Plains and northern Rockies
on Tuesday, with quasi- zonal flow aloft over our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue on Wednesday, with mainly
dry conditions and afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s
across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

An upper level trough will track east across the central and
northern Plains on Thursday. An associated cold front is expected
to move south across the area late Wednesday night and Thursday.
The front will bring gusty north winds and cooler temperatures
for the end of the week. Highs on Thursday will range from the 70s
north of the front across the Big Country, to the upper 80s to
near 90 ahead of the front along the I-10 corridor. There is a
low chance for thunderstorms to develop along the front over far
southeast counties during the afternoon hours. Any storms that
develop could become strong/severe given an unstable airmass and
adequate shear. Highs on Friday will be in the mid and upper 70s,
with lows Thursday night and Friday night in the 50s.

Models continue to show an upper level storm system developing
across the Desert Southwest Friday into Saturday, then tracking
slowly east into the southern Plains by late in the weekend and
early next week. Some model differences continue, with the ECMWF
maintaining a slower solution. This system will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area over the weekend and
possibly into early next week. Given some model differences, will
keep POPs on the low side for now. Highs over the weekend will be
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Saturday, warming into
the low to mid 80s by next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Stratus is currently developing across the northwest Hill Country
and expect MVFR ceilings to develop at the southern 3 sites
by 07Z. VFR conditions will return to all sites by mid morning.
Winds through the next 24 hours should generally remain below 12
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  67  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  95  68  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    95  71  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   89  68  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  89  66  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       93  68  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       90  70  92  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Daniels